Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 1998

CURRENTLY...SEA BREEZE JUST PUSHING ONTO THE MAINLAND SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL BUT FIGHTING AGAINST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT.  CUMULUS FIELD
NICELY DEPICTING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
CLOUDS STARTING TO BUILD IN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS.  RADAR ACTUALLY SHOWING THE FIRST SMOKE PLUME IN SOME TIME.

DISCUSSION...WITH ACTIVITY LATE IN FORMING...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR EVENING STORMS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WORK ON INSTABILITY UNTIL SHORTLY PAST SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE LITTLE SO EXPECT THAT LOW TO MID 90S
WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE REAL SUPPRESSED AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TUTT CELL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN DEEP CONVECTION LIKE
WITH LAST SYSTEM.  TEMPS ALOFT NOT PROGGED TO WARM APPRECIABLY EITHER
SO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTH EACH
DAY.

LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-272030-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1115 AM EDT MON JUL 27 1998

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY.  MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE IS AT SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND SLOWER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT A BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE INLAND FROM THE WEST
COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY EARLY EVENING.
THIS WOULD MAXIMIZE STORM INTENSITY AND RESULT IN FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE FROM INTERIOR VOLUSIA TOWARDS
EASTERN METRO ORLANDO THEN TO ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER.

PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES... ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AT THE FIRST SIGN OF APPROACHING LIGHTNING STORMS.  STORM MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

MARINE INTERESTS...A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTRA
COASTAL WATERWAYS BUT FEW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-272030-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1115 AM EDT MON JUL 27 1998

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY.  MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE IS AT SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND SLOWER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT A BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE INLAND FROM THE WEST
COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY EARLY EVENING.
THIS WOULD MAXIMIZE STORM INTENSITY AND RESULT IN FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE FROM INTERIOR VOLUSIA TOWARDS
EASTERN METRO ORLANDO THEN TO ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER.

PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES... ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AT THE FIRST SIGN OF APPROACHING LIGHTNING STORMS.  STORM MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

MARINE INTERESTS...A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTRA
COASTAL WATERWAYS BUT FEW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

LASCODY