Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
217 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 1998

CURRENTLY...SEA BREEZE...AS EXPECTED HAS PUSHED ONTO THE MAINLAND
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  ACTUALLY IT
OCCURRED EARLIER NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL DUE TO MORE NORTH COMPONENT
OF GRADIENT WIND.  THIS WAS ALSO HELPING TO HOLD THE SMOKE OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH VISIBILITIES IN BREVARD COUNTY RANGING FROM 1/2
MILE TO ONE MILE.

DISCUSSION...I AM NOT SEEING MUCH OF A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO INSTABILITY LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL.  MOISTURE
FROM FEATURE MOVING INTO TEXAS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE THE ANTICYCLONIC
PATH INTO THE AREA...SO WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
ABOUT AVERAGE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED.

MODELS ALL SHOW GRADUAL WESTWARD DRIFT OF DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO MOVE INLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONE CAN ONLY HOPE
THAT THERE IS A LITTLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH.  THIS WOULD GIVE US A SHOT AT A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH STORMS AT THIS POINT WILL
REALLY COMPLICATE THE FIRE FIGHTING PROCESS.  WEAKENING GRADIENT
THOUGH MIGHT SHIFT SEA BREEZE FAR ENOUGH INLAND SO THAT STORMS WHICH
FORM WILL MISS MANY OF THE FIRE AREAS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THIS DROUGHT MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY...FROM VERY
LITTLE (10 PERCENT)...TO A LITTLE COVERAGE (20 TO 30 PERCENT).

TEMPS STILL WILL RUN ABOVE FWCS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  TEMPS
HAVE REACHED 90 BY 10 AM AT MELBOURNE OFFICE FOR ABOUT THE LAST MONTH
(99 BEFORE8 SEA BREEZE TODAY).

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WEEKEND SINCE THE
MORE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS MAY START TO PUSH SMOKE FROM THE FIRES
INTO METRO ORLANDO.

LASCODY