Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 1998

THIS WILL BE SHORT AS WEATHER QUICKLY BECOMING ACTIVE. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
HAVE BEEN REACHED...AND ADAP SHOWS ACTIVITY IN AREA WHERE CAP HAS
ERODED. STILL ABOUT 2F OVER CENTRAL CWA...WHICH SHOULD BREAK IN
ANOTHER 1-2HRS. COULD MAKE FOR A BUSY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THEIR USUAL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO
UPCOMING WEATHER...THEYRE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ETA CONTINUES TO OVERDO SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO NORTH...AND IS MORE GENEROUS WITH MOISTURE.

ESENTIALLY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE
...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO EDGE NORTHWARD AFTER TROUGH
MOVES OFF INTO ATLC. ETA SHOWS THIS TREND MORE THAN NGM...BUT HAS
BEEN OVERDOING EXTENT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW FOR A
FEW RUNS. STEERING WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH NON-EXISTENT OVER CWA.

MODELS ALSO WANT TO MOVE SOUTHERN END OF TUTT TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND
GOMEX...ALTHOUGH 250MB DIVERGENCE THAT FRIDAYS MRF HINTED AT FRI IS
NON-EXISTENT IN THE SHORT RANGE. IN FACT CONVERGENCE (SUBSIDENCE)
SHOWS UP IN THE NGM OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

IN SUM...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO OCCUR WITH SEA BREEZE A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN TODAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
40/50 POPS SHOULD DO. TEMPS STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO...ALTHOUGH
COASTAL MAXES MAY FALL BELOW RECORD VALUES.

NOTE...99F AT MLB MAKES 11 STRIGHT DAYS F RECORD TEMPS AND 16 FOR 20
IN JUNE.

CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-201730-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 1998

...GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...A FEW STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
...HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES...
...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY.  WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AND MOVE INLAND.

A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR INTERSTATE 95.  COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTERACT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF VOLUSIA AND
ORANGE COUNTIES TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  MOVEMENT WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.

STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  IF A STORM
APPROACHES...MOVE INSIDE TO A SAFE LOCATION BEFORE IT REACHES YOU.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 110.  SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 100 TO
105.  IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND AVOID
PROLONGED STRENUOUS ACTIVITY.

THOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THE PAST 2 DAYS
...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN VERY DRY AND PRONE TO
WILDFIRES.  BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ALL FIRE SOURCES.  THOSE WHO
LIVE NEAR WOODED AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF SMOKE IS
OBSERVED.

CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-201730-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 1998

...GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...A FEW STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
...HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES...
...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY.  WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AND MOVE INLAND.

A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR INTERSTATE 95.  COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTERACT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF VOLUSIA AND
ORANGE COUNTIES TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  MOVEMENT WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.

STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  IF A STORM
APPROACHES...MOVE INSIDE TO A SAFE LOCATION BEFORE IT REACHES YOU.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 110.  SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 100 TO
105.  IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND AVOID
PROLONGED STRENUOUS ACTIVITY.

THOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THE PAST 2 DAYS
...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN VERY DRY AND PRONE TO
WILDFIRES.  BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ALL FIRE SOURCES.  THOSE WHO
LIVE NEAR WOODED AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF SMOKE IS
OBSERVED.

CRISTALDI