Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 1998

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER RECORD. 99F AT MLB PRIOR TO THE EAST COAST
SEA-BREEZE PASSAGE.

CURRENTLY...STILL HAZE AND SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF FLORIDA.
15Z XMR RAOB HAD MORE REALISTIC PWAT OF 1.5 TO 1.6...ABOUT WHERE IT
WAS. CURRENTLY...WEST COAST BREEZE MORE ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY WITH
STRONG STORMS APPROACHING SUMTER COUNTY FROM THE WEST. NOTHING AT ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE. ALSO...THE 15KT NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW
HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME NORTHERLY. WARNINGS STARTING TO BE ISSUED FOR
TBW COUNTIES...SO COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR
WITH SEA BREEZE MERGER LIKELY. STRONG STORMS DEFINITELY A THREAT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THE WESTERLIES OVER NORTHERN HALF/
TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AGAIN...THE ETA/NGM SHOW
DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS OF AIR MASS MOISTENING WITH THE ETA BIAS (SEEN
3 TIMES DURING THIS HEAT WAVE) OF OVERDOING MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA.
ETA ALSO BUILDS 700MB HEIGHTS STRONGLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE
NGM...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING BETTER AS OF LATE...KEEPS A RATHER WEAK
AND FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH
PERHAPS A 30/40 POP NEEDED BY SUNDAY. WILL STILL NEED SOME U90S
MENTIONED FOR BREVARD/VOLUSIA GIVEN FWC LOW TEMP BIAS.

250MB HEIGHT PROG SHOWS MRF STILL INSISTENT ON RETROGRADING THE TUTT
AXIS WESTWARD INTO THE GOMEX BY H72...PUTTING ECFL IN STRONGLY
DIFLUENT UPPER PATTERN MONDAY. IT DOES BACK OFF ON THE RESPONSE AT
500MB AS WELL AS MOISTURE RETURN...AND THUS MUST BE VIEWED WITH
CAUTION.

CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-191630-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1115 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 1998

...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES...
...EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO MOVE WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN.
A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM
NEAR THE VOLUSIA/LAKE COUNTY BORDER...ACROSS METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES INTERACT.

STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  IF A STORM
APPROACHES...MOVE INSIDE TO A SAFE LOCATION BEFORE IT REACHES YOU.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 110.  SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 100 TO 105.  IF YOU
MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND AVOID PROLONGED
STRENUOUS ACTIVITY.

THOUGH SOME AREAS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON THURSDAY...MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS VERY DRY AND PRONE TO WILD FIRES.  BE
EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ALL FIRE SOURCES.  THOSE WHO LIVE NEAR WOODED
AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF SMOKE IS OBSERVED.

CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-191630-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1115 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 1998

...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES...
...EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO MOVE WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN.
A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM
NEAR THE VOLUSIA/LAKE COUNTY BORDER...ACROSS METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES INTERACT.

STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  IF A STORM
APPROACHES...MOVE INSIDE TO A SAFE LOCATION BEFORE IT REACHES YOU.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 110.  SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 100 TO 105.  IF YOU
MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND AVOID PROLONGED
STRENUOUS ACTIVITY.

THOUGH SOME AREAS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON THURSDAY...MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS VERY DRY AND PRONE TO WILD FIRES.  BE
EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ALL FIRE SOURCES.  THOSE WHO LIVE NEAR WOODED
AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF SMOKE IS OBSERVED.

CRISTALDI