Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 18 1998

...NO AVN MODEL TO LOOK AT DUE TO PROBLEMS AT NCEP...

ONSET OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS A TAD EARLIER EACH DAY. TODAY IT
PASSED OFFICE AROUND 1730Z...BUT NOT EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM
ENTERING THE RECORD BOOKS FOR THE 14TH TIME IN 18 DAYS WITH 99F. KMLB
88D SHOWS ISOLD STORMS FIRING NEAR LAKE OKEE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...
BUT ALSO FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTH BREVARD...WHICH DIDN'T OCCUR.
LIKELY DUE TO A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY DUE TO THE 850-700MB LEVEL
COOLING MENTIONED IN MORNING AFD. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SEA BREEZE
STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO POTNETIAL SEA BREEZE MERGER. 30
POP WOULD PROBABLY FIT BETTER FOR INTERIOR ZONES THIS EVENING. MORE
OF THE SAME OLD SAME OLD FOR OVERNIGHT WITH WARM MINS AS PER FWC...
ALTHOUGH AREAS WHICH SEE SHRA/TSRA WILL COOL FASTER.

FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MODELS IN AMOUNT OF AIRMASS
MOISTURE OVER REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ETA RAISING VALUES TO
1.8/1.9...AND ETA IS LIKELY SUFFERING FEEDBACK FROM DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE-INDUCED PRESSURE TROUGH OVER INTERIOR AND AS A RESULT OVERDOES
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PWATS.  MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE 700MB
FLOW IN THE ETA AS WELL...WHILE NGM KEEPS FLOW LIGHTER. PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR HIGHEST POPS OVER INTERIOR/WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURE PROFILE
SHOWS LITTLE COOLING...SO INSTABILITY SIMILAR TO TODAY. A 20/30 POP
IS FAVORED WOULD PROBABLY SUFFICE.

ALTHOUGH THE C-BREEZE ONSET SHOULD BE A BIT EARLIER ON FRIDAY...THE
RECORD FOR MLB IS A "MERE" 95F...WHICH AS OF LATE HAS BEEN REACHED AT
OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE NOON.

THANKS FOR SHARING THOUGHTS MIA/TBW.

CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-181730-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1113 AM EDT THU JUN 18 1998

...ISOLATED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS...
...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE DANGER EXTREMELY HIGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHOSE AXIS LIES NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE WELL INLAND.  A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES INTERACT FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
FROM WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY TO METRO ORLANDO AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
STORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IF A STORM APPROACHES...MOVE INSIDE
TO A SAFE LOCATION BEFORE IT REACHES YOU.

MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF NEAR 110.  SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE SCORCHING
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
LIKE 100 TO 105.  IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND
AVOID PROLONGED STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES.

WITH EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THE
FIRE THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE NUMBER OF
LARGE BRUSH FIRES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY...
AND STILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ALL FIRE SOURCES. DONT DISPOSE OF
CIGARETTES OUTDOORS...USE ONLY PROPER RECEPTACLES. DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS GET TOO HOT...YOU MAY WANT TO REDUCE THE
AMOUNT OF DRIED BRUSH OR OTHER POTENTIAL FUEL FOR BRUSH FIRES FROM
YOUR PROPERTY. IF THE HEAT IS TOO MUCH...HAVE SOMEONE DO IT FOR YOU.
THOSE WHO LIVE NEAR A WOODED AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF
SMOKE IS OBSERVED.

CRISTALDI