Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 AM EST TUE FEB 17 1998

CURRENTLY...KMLB 88D SHOWS VERY RAPIDLY MOVING (60MPH) SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS ACROSS CWA...WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTH FLORIDA MOVING
OUT TO SEA. ACTIVITY FORMING IN NARROW LINES WITH NO LARGER SCALE
FOCUSING MECHANISM AVAILABLE ATTM. UPSTREAM FROM ECFL...KTBW 88D PLUS
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION REDEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF PENINSULA AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS DIFLUENT ON RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF 160-180KT JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX. AS THESE CELLS
APPROACH THE COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE
FOR BOW ECHOES TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE CELLS...POSSIBLY FEW ROTATING
STORMS. HIGH THETAE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA...THUS
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS A PROBLEM AS WAS THE CASE MONDAY
AM.

EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE GONE BY LATE MORNING AS COOL
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE...TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. PCLDY
CONDS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON...STILL MILD THOUGH AS DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH PERIOD.

ALONG WITH TBW/MIA...HAVE COORD WITH SELS FOR UPCOMING WATCH AS WELL
AS WITH MIA W/R/T DROPPING THE FFA FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THANKS ALL
AROUND.

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-171030-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EST TUE FEB 17 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COUNTIES EXCEPT MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES...

AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR MAY ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AT NEAR 60 MPH...SO BE PREPARED TO TAKE
FAST ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. IN ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE POOR VISIBILITY AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADS.

AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES AND THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED AREAS
SUCH AS CAUSEWAYS.

MARINE OUTLOOK...WINDY CONDITIONS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE MARINE AREA DURING MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. MARINERS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER STAYING IN PORT
TODAY.

CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-171030-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EST TUE FEB 17 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COUNTIES EXCEPT MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES...

AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR MAY ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AT NEAR 60 MPH...SO BE PREPARED TO TAKE
FAST ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. IN ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE POOR VISIBILITY AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADS.

AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES AND THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED AREAS
SUCH AS CAUSEWAYS.

MARINE OUTLOOK...WINDY CONDITIONS AND HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE MARINE AREA DURING MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. MARINERS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER STAYING IN PORT
TODAY.

CRISTALDI

V