Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT MON AUG 31 1998

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND
OTHER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING SE. UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE NE/FL
COAST WILL CONTINUE EWD MOVEMENT IN THE WAKE OF A RECURVING
HURRICANE DANIELLE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL OVER THE STATE INTO TOMORROW WITH WEST/
NW FLOW AND DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND
SEABREEZE FRONT. OVERALL...WOULD EXPECT SIMILIAR POPS AND CLOUD
COVERAGE TO TODAYS SCENARIO GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE.

EXTENDED...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. MODEL DATA AGREES ON A GENERAL NWD
MOVEMENT...WITH ETA BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFICATION. STILL
TOO EARLY TO TELL DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION DUE TO LACK OF
ORGANIZATION OF SFC CENTER...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM TO BE A PLAYER IN
THE EXTENDED FCST AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF ANY WWD MOVEMENT.
INTERACTION WITH STEERING TROUGH OVER CONTINENTAL US LIKELY TO MAKE
THIS A HYBRID SYSTEM AS ASCD RAINBANDS AFFECT THE FL PENINSULA.

COASTAL...EXPECT RIPTIDES TO BE GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DANIELLE
REMAIN.

PENDERGRAST

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-312000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 31 1998

...THE COASTAL RIP CURRENT THREAT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...

...LIGHTNING STORMS TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION TODAY...

LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET. AS A
RESULT OF THESE SWELLS...THE THREAT FROM RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN NORMAL.  ALWAYS SWIM AT BEACHES WITH LIFEGUARDS.  IF
CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...TRY TO REMAIN CALM AND
SIGNAL FOR HELP...THEN SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL OUT OF THE
CURRENT AND RETURN TO SHORE.

SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM BY MIDDAY OVER VOLUSIA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE
AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS TODAY. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE MANY MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT STORM. DO NOT ASSUME IT IS
SAFE TO BE OUTSIDE JUST AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED.

MARINE INTERESTS...LITTLE SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.  BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING
INLETS...ESPECIALLY AS SWELLS HELP GENERATE ROUGHj CONDITIONS DURING
THE OUTGOING TIDE. LOW TIDES FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO SEBASTIAN INLET
WILL BE FROM 931 PM TO 951 PM THIS EVENING.

PENDERGRAST