Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
217 PM EDT MON AUG 10 1998

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS ISSUANCE WL BE TSRA CHANCES THRU THE
FCST PERIODS.

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS MAKING IT
INLAND THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FA AS IT IS ONLY ARND 10 MILES INLAND AS
OF 18Z. GULF BREEZE ALSO SLOWLY IS MOVG EWD W/FRONT EDGE NEARING
LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. W/POSSIBLE INTERSECTION OF BOUNDARIES
EXPECTED ACROSS MY NRN COUNTIES...MAY NEED TO KEEP POPS UP THERE
THIS EVENING AS IN THE GOING FCST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST HANDLES
SLGT/ISOLATED POPS WELL FOR THE FA THIS EVENING.

THE MODELS...ETA/AVN/NGM KEEP WEST MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FA THRU
ERLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL RECOMMEND THAT WE GO W/SLGTLY ABOVE CLIMO
POPS AROUND 50 PCT FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREA ON TUESDAY. WL AGAIN
RECOMMEND THAT WE GO W/CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF
THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY...ALL MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT MID LEVEL WINDS
AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH MEAN RH ALSO DECREASING AND FCST
SOUNDING FM ETA FOR MLB AREA ALSO INDICATES LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...SO WILL RECOMMEND WE GO CLOSE TO NGM GUIDANCE AS FAR AS
POPS ARE CONCERNED WITH A 40 PCT POP WARRANTED.

NGM TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR FA AND ACCEPTED.

TROUTMAN

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-101600-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 10 1998

...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...
...GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON...

ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND 10 MILES INLAND. THE GULF BREEZE WILL INTERACT
LATER WITH THE INLAND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHTNING STORMS IN VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE COUNTIES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MILES AN HOUR.

INLAND COUNTIES WILL ALSO HAVE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE FROM 1 TO 4 PM AS THE STORMS FORMING NEAR THE
COAST MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FROM ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHWARD THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10 MPH...WHILE NORTH
OF THIS LINE...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. SINCE
THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE MOVED WELL INLAND BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
BEACHES ESPECIALLY FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JUPITER INLET.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE RAIN.
AVOID BEING THE TALLEST OBJECT WHEN LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. DO NOT
TAKE CHANCES BY WALKING ACROSS PARKING LOTS OR STANDING ON THE BEACH
OR GOLF COURSE.

ALTHOUGH OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN
GREATER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS THE TIDE RECEDES. THOSE
HEADING TO THE BEACH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ARE ADVISED TO CHECK WITH LIFE
GUARDS PRIOR TO ENTERING THE WATER.

MARINE OUTLOOK...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND WILL THEN DECREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM VERO BEACH SOUTH TO NEAR JUPITER INLET.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS NORTH OF THE CAPE.

TROUTMAN/SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-101600-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 10 1998

...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...
...GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON...

ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND 10 MILES INLAND. THE GULF BREEZE WILL INTERACT
LATER WITH THE INLAND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHTNING STORMS IN VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE COUNTIES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MILES AN HOUR.

INLAND COUNTIES WILL ALSO HAVE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE FROM 1 TO 4 PM AS THE STORMS FORMING NEAR THE
COAST MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FROM ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHWARD THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10 MPH...WHILE NORTH
OF THIS LINE...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. SINCE
THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE MOVED WELL INLAND BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE ALONG THE COAST AND
BEACHES ESPECIALLY FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JUPITER INLET.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE RAIN.
AVOID BEING THE TALLEST OBJECT WHEN LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. DO NOT
TAKE CHANCES BY WALKING ACROSS PARKING LOTS OR STANDING ON THE BEACH
OR GOLF COURSE.

ALTHOUGH OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN
GREATER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS THE TIDE RECEDES. THOSE
HEADING TO THE BEACH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ARE ADVISED TO CHECK WITH LIFE
GUARDS PRIOR TO ENTERING THE WATER.

MARINE OUTLOOK...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND WILL THEN DECREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM VERO BEACH SOUTH TO NEAR JUPITER INLET.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS NORTH OF THE CAPE.

TROUTMAN/SPRATT