Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
216 PM EDT MON JUN 15 1998

RDU: WILL LIKELY NEED LOW POPS ESPCLY INLND/N THIS EVE OTRW BECMG MNLY
CLR OVRNGT. PC WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHC POPS INLAND BY TUE AFTN AND
ALONG THE CST AFTN INTO EARLY EVE THEN PC OVRNGT. MAY NEED SLGT CHC
IMMED COAST WED OTRW MSTLY SUNNY. FWC TEMPS OK ALTHO MAY BE COOL WED.

CWF: GRAD HIER ACRS THE S THIS AFTN AND THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONT OVRNGT
WITH MOST AT SCA CRIT OVRNGT AS SW LLJ PASSES OVRHD. SOME DECRS LKLY
TUE WELL AHD OF THE FRNT BEFORE UPR VORT/FRONT ENHANCES GRAD LT TUE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVE. SHUD SEE A QUICK DROPOFF TO ARND 15 KTS WED AS FRONTAL
REMNANTS APCH THE COAST AND TRAJ TURNS WLY. WILL CONT SPLIT AT HSE
GIVEN CONTG HIER SEAS S PLUS BETTER GRAD.

DISC: ATMOS REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE ACRS THE E WITH CAPES AOA 4K AND
THETA-E RIDGE FRM THE S COAST N TO THE ALB SOUND. LACK OF FOCUS
EXCEPT RESULTANT BNDRY AND RESIDU WEAKNESS N PER EARLIER TSRA HOLDING
TSRA BACK ATTM GIVEN CAPPING ALF. WILL LKLY SEE WDLY SCT CVRG DVLP
INLND/N SHORTLY OTRW SHUD SEE MNLY CLR OVRNGT PER LOSS OF HEATING.
THNK BTR CHCS ESPCLY INLND TUE AS WEAK FRONT EDGES EWD AND UPR
VORT INTERACTS WITH HEATING/SLGTLY HIER RH TRANSPORT AND APCHG JET
STREAK IN THE AFTN. TSRA ENDING TUE EVE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS EWD BUT
COULD HANG UP NEAR THE COAST WED WITH BEST SUPPORT PASSING N AND SEA
BREEZE. FWC TEMPS OK ALTHO WITH ONLY SLGT 85H COOLING HAVE DOUBTS
ABT MUCH TEMP DECRS WED.

.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.
JH