Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 1998

RDU: CONT CHCY POPS THRU THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT MNLY N OF EWN OTRW PC.
TRICKY CLOUD FCST SAT WITH PTNL FOR MSTLY CLDY/COOL CONDS FRM PAM/ALB
SOUNDS N AND PC ELSW. BECMG MSTLY CLDY SAT NGT THEN VRBLY CLDY S/MSTLY
CLDY N SUNDAY WITH CHCY SHRA. LIKE BLO FWC TEMPS INLND/CNTRL CST AND
OUTER BANKS NWD SAT/SUNDAY.

CWF: STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF OH VLY SFC LOW PRES WILL CONT TO MAKE
DIRS A BIT UNCERTAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS PLAN TO
LWR SCA THIS EVE WITH THE GRAD LKLY TO DROP BLO 20 KTS AS LOW TO THE
N PASSES E THRU SAT MORN. PLAN TO CONT CURRENT SPLIT AND SHFT TO N NRN
HALF AND SOUNDS BY MORN AND CONT INTO SUN BEFORE BCMG VRBL. COULD SEE A
BRF SURGE TO 20 KTS N ONCE CD FRONT BEGINS TO SLIDE S OTRW 15 KTS SHUD
HOLD. S OF HSE...SW VEERING W TNGT THEN NW TO N SAT/SAT NGT BHND THE
BNDRY...BECMG SW AS FRNT LIFTS N SUN. S CST COULD STAY W BUT IFFY ATTM.

ZFP: EARLY CONCERN WITH BNDRYS ROLLING SE UNDER SRN VA 5H VORT AND FIRING
TSRA E AND S WHR ADAP/PC-CAPE SHOW INCRSG INSTAB DESPITE DRYING ALF. WILL
NEED TO CONT POP ESPCLY N THIS EVE THEN LKLY SOME SHRA LINGERING AS
MDLS SHIFT OH VLY LOW ACRS THE VA BORDER LATE AND OFFSHR EARLY SAT.
LTL UVV REMAINING SAT-SAT NGT WITH WEAK BACKDOOR TYPE BNDRY SAGGING
S TO BLO LOOKOUT BUT DEPTH OF COOL NLY TRAJ LKLY TO BRING SOME LW CLDNS
S. NEXT APCHG S/W TO BRING CLDNS BACK LATE SAT NGT AND S PER THETA
ADVNCTN AND FRONT LIFTING NWD. THINK WEAK 5H RIDGE AND SFC STAB BETWEEN
SYS ENOUGH TO HOLD POPS BACK UNTIL SUN AFTN. TEMPS LKLY NEAR GUID S CST
WHR FRONT SLOWS BUT COOLER N GIVEN WIND TRAJ AND MORE CLDNS.

.MHX...NONE.
JH