Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EST WED APR 1 1998

RDU: 40-50 POPS FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WOULD LIKE 30-40 POP FOR LATE FRI. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 50S...HIGHS ON
THU LOW 80S INLAND 70 BEACHES/OUTER BANKS.  LOWS THU NIGHT LOW 50S.
HIGHS ON FRI MID 70S.  SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  MOSTLY SUNNY
THU...FAIR SKIES THU NIGHT WITH SOME CI AND THICKENING CLOUDS FRI.

CWF: WILL CONTINUE SCA MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF FRONT.
WORDING OF TSTMS WITH STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER SEAS IN ORDER THIS
EVENING IN ANTICIPATION OF A WATCH.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SCA
LATE AND CONTINUE BELOW THROUGH FRI.  SEAS MAY LINGER IN SCA RANGE
EARLY THU BEFORE SUBSIDING BUT THEN REMAIN BELOW THROUGH FRI.

DISC: STRONG UPPER DIFLUNCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME LACK OF INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK INLAND COUNTIES
PRIMED FOR SVR AS CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF TSTM LINES OVER
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.  WE EXPECT BOW ECHO/WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL
DUE TO LOW WBZ. WSHFT LINE/DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY WILL CROSS THE
COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ENDING PCPN THREAT AND ALLOWING SKIES TO
BECOM SKC.  DOWNSLOPE WSTRLY FLOW ON THU WILL KEEP SKIES MSTLY SUNNY
AND TEMPS IN GUIDANCE BALLPARK AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OFF THE CANADIAN
COAST.  ON FRI ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE SE WITH
THE AVN TAKING THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT.
SEVERAL TIMES THIS YEAR I THOUGHT THE AVN WAS TOO FAST ONLY TO BE
PROVEN WRONG.  THUS WILL BUY INTO CHC POPS LATE FRI WITH RAPIDLY INC
CLOUDS.  I AM IN HARMONY WITH GUID TEMPS THIS PACKAGE.

.MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS AND SNDS.

ELARDO