Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
200 PM CDT MON MAY 25 1998

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA (NEAR KFST) WITH DRYLINE WEST OF KP07.  POST FRONTAL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 60S SOUTH OF FRONT AND EAST
OF DRYLINE.  KMAF 88D VWP INDICATES DEPTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
INCREASED LAST SEVERAL HOURS TO 3000-3500 FEET (NORTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS IN THIS LAYER).  SOME CUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DOMINATING THE SKY.  LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MOVING NORTHEAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL H5 WEATHER PATTERN NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AHEAD OF DEEP LOW APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY (SUBTROPICAL) FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN FA (MAINLY NORTHEAST) LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (SEE ADAP PRODUCT SS2)
REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA (LOW ROLLING PLAINS)
ATTM.  CAP HOLDING STRONG AS A LOOK OUTSIDE YIELDS NO CUMULUS.  AT
THE SFC...ETA AND NGM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW WITH RESPECT TO
RETURN MOISTURE AND POSITION OF DRYLINE.  ATTM WILL LEAN CLOSER TO
ETA AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY CLOSE TONIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN CAPES NEAR 2000 OVER EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TOMORROW.  THIS
COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE MAY GIVE SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL STICK CLOSE TO FWC GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS IT
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS AND EXPECTED DEWPOINTS.  FOR TOMORROW
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE WITH A TOUCH OF FWC GUIDANCE.

MAF  62/95 21
CNM  58/95 --
MRF  50/88 -0
P07  69/94 11

EARLE

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-260500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1207 PM CDT (1107 AM MDT) MON MAY 25 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM LAMESA
TO MIDLAND TO BIG LAKE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...A DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...AND
A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LAMESA
TO MIDLAND TO BIG LAKE.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.  FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB.

GPM/SVG