Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
259 PM CDT (159 PM MDT) SUN SEP 27 1998

MIGHT AS WELL CUT-N-PASTE YESTERDAYS FCST...AS TODAYS LOOKS TO BE
PERSISTENCE-DRIVEN YET AGAIN.  ONLY MESOSCALE FEATURE OF NOTE IS
SHARPLY-DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING FM E OF KEPZ N THRU KBGD AND UP
ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER.  MID LVL MSTR...AS NOTED ON SATELLITE VIS
IMAGERY...STILL EXISTS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE DRYLINE...AND AS THE
DRYLINE MAKES ITS DIURNAL TREK E...THIS COULD FIRE OFF SOME TS LATER
THIS AFTN/EVE.  MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST BEGINNING TO
FIRE OFF OF THE TRANS PECOS AREA AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT NOT AS
VIGOROUSLY AS YEST ATTM.

SYNOPTICALLY...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PREVIOUS 24 HRS.  SATELLITE
WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL CUT-OFF LOW STILL HANGING TUFF OVER THE
INNER CA ELBOW.  THIS IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHERN CA/NV
BORDER BY 48 HRS.  ON THE E SIDE...GEORGES CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND PILOTTOWN IN PLAQUEMINES
PARISH ON THE MS DELTA.  TO THE S...UPPER LVL VORT MAX OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAIN CONTINUES TO ERODE AND IS STILL PROGGED TO DIE ON THE
COASTAL BEND.

BOTTOM LINE IS A LONG WV RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE ENTIRE S CENTRAL/
SE US BY THE END OF THE FCST PD FOR CONTINUED WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  MRF INDICATES BETTER SHOT AT CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED AS
CUT-OFF LOW MEANDERS EWD...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE ATTM.
TEMPS CONTINUE ON THE HIGH SIDE...UP TO 9 DEG F ABOVE GUIDANCE...SO
WL CONTINUE TO ADJUST FOR THOSE.  JD

MAF 68/93 -/0
CNM 63/98 -/-
MRF 60/87 0/0
P07 67/94 0/0