Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 1998

OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE INDICATED
IMPRESSIVE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF CHARLIE. A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR N TERRELL AND FAR E PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL
6 AM CDT. WE ARE MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF
RAINFALL (SEE RECENT SPENES) THAN OUR DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES...
WHICH ARE PROBABLY UNDERESTIMATING AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE
HIGHLY TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION.

FORECAST PROBLEM IS RAIN THREAT FROM REMNANTS OF CHARLIE. SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW UPPER HIGH CENTERED SSW OF BIG BEND...WHICH
MODELS PROG TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP FAR SE ZONES IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ALSO TRY TO OPEN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CHARLIE (BEST SEEN AROUND 700 MB) TODAY INTO INVERTED TROUGH. BASED
ON FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT CHARLIE TO MAKE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PROGRESS NW
INTO OUR CWA. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS OVER LAND OFTEN PRODUCE
HEAVIEST RAIN AT NIGHT...SO WE BELIEVE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
THEREFORE BE ISSUED UNTIL NOON FOR SE ZONES...INCLUDING CRANE...
UPTON...AND REAGAN COUNTIES...WHICH IS WHERE PRESENT ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY HEADING. WILL LEAVE IT TO DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF CHARLIE LATER THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS WITH OTHERS IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING POPS OVER
NRN ZONES. WILL UNDERCUT THESE...AND USE A GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. COORDINATED WITH LUBBOCK.

MAF  89/70  20/30
CNM  95/68  10/10
MRF  82/61  20/20
P07  82/71  40/40

TJT/RJN

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-260500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
456 AM CDT (356 AM MDT) TUE AUG 25 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:  THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
GARDEN CITY-FORT STOCKTON-BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK LINE. IT IS THIS
AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. ASIDE FROM THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.

TJT