Tornado Warning 12, NWS Lubbock, TX

TXZ021>044-081900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
MEMPHIS TO JAYTON LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

LATE THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WAS
RESULTING IN A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST TOWARD CHILDRESS. A WARM
LAYER OF AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE RISK AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
TORNADOES TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...PRIMARILY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NECESSARY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK.

69

TXZ021>044-081900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
MEMPHIS TO JAYTON LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

LATE THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WAS
RESULTING IN A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST TOWARD CHILDRESS. A WARM
LAYER OF AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE RISK AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
TORNADOES TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...PRIMARILY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NECESSARY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK.

69

TXZ021>044-090115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
114 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 8 PM CDT...

THE TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES ALL OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...
BAILEY...LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...COTTLE...COCHRAN...
HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...KING...YOAKUM...TERRY...
LYNN...GARZA...KENT AND STONEWALL.

LV

TXZ021>044-090115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
114 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 8 PM CDT...

THE TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES ALL OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...
BAILEY...LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...COTTLE...COCHRAN...
HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...KING...YOAKUM...TERRY...
LYNN...GARZA...KENT AND STONEWALL.

LV