Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
200 PM CDT WED OCT 28 1998

...FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN SD BY TOMORROW AND THEN INTO WI BY TOMORROW NIGHT.  A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL NE WILL LIFT INTO NORTHEAST NE BY TOMORROW MORNING.

MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE NGM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
MOISTURE A LITTLE BETTER.  THEN THE NGM SPLITS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW INTO TWO PIECES OVER EASTERN SD/NE BEFORE TAKING
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ETA/AVN KEEP THE SHORTWAVE AS ONE.  ALL MODELS
THEN INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS BY THU
NIGHT AS ONE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MN WHILE ANOTHER TROF DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

THE DRY SLOT THAT WORKED INTO WESTERN NE TODAY HAS CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOME COLD AIR FUNNELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS INTO
NORTHEAST NE AND MUCH OF THE CWA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN THE WRAP AROUND
STRATUS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
TOMORROW.

THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN MOST PORTION
OF THE CWA TO CONTINUE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW.  PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS.

SUGGESTED CCF

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONTAINED WITHIN THE PRODUCT OMAZFPLBF.

LBF BE 048/060 033/055 031 600
VTN EE 043/056 031/051 029 720
OGA BE 046/060 033/056 032 600
IML BE 047/061 033/056 032 600
BBW BE 048/061 033/056 034 600
ANW EE 047/056 033/055 033 720
ONL EE 047/055 033/054 032 720

DDB

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-291200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
215 PM CST (115 PM MST) WED OCT 28 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING NEBRASKA COUNTIES...

ARTHUR     BLAINE     BOYD       BROWN      CHASE      CHERRY
CUSTER     DEUEL      FRONTIER   GARDEN     GARFIELD   GRANT
HAYES      HOLT       HOOKER     KEITH      KEYA PAHA  LINCOLN
LOGAN      LOUP       MCPHERSON  PERKINS    ROCK       SHERIDAN
THOMAS     WHEELER

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSHKOSH TO NEAR BROKEN BOW.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT HAS HELPED DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CAUSING THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION...
CABLE TELEVISION...OR RADIO BROADCASTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.  BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES OR
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

DDB