Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 1998

FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POPS...

18Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND
THE COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING. SATELLITE INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FA WITH SCATTERED CU IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND CONVECTION OVER THE
BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE ETA MODEL INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NGM WITH SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH HOWEVER BOTH WERE SIMILAR WITH THE BASIC FEATURES
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY WITH WHERE THE FRONT
WILL LIE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ETA MODEL SEEMS TO KEEP FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WEST THAN DOES THE NGM. PREFER THE ETA MODEL
AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
...COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE BY 06Z SUNDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE BY 12Z. FRONT WILL MAKE SLOWER PROGRESS EAST
DURING THE DAY SO THAT 30 PERCENT POPS WOULD BE WARRANTED
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A LINE FROM
VTN TO LBF AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TO THE FA
ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.

FOLLOWED FAN AND NGM MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND SEEMED ON TRACK.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN PRODUCT OMAZFPLBF...

LBF BU 062/092 063/090 062 033
OGA BU 061/091 061/090 060 033
IML BU 062/093 062/091 061 033
VTN BU 061/090 060/089 060 033
ONL BU 064/091 062/088 062 033
ANW BU 063/090 061/089 061 033
BBW BU 064/091 062/088 062 033

FS/KR