Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 1998

...FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT TO BE CLOUDS...

AT 18Z KLNX 88D SHOWING WDLY SCT TSTMS FORMING ALONG NARROW
LN ACROSS THE SW CHERRY CO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES OVER THE CWFA FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THROUGH
THE EVENING. SFC FRONT TO THE E OF A ONL TO GRI LN.

MODELS INDICATE RATHER SLOW MOVING PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER NEXT 48
HOURS AS EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS IN THE SW AND RIDGES NE. 5H
LO CENTERED OVER NERN MT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE WITH NGM OPENING CLOSED
LOW UP FASTER BY END OF PERIOD. PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION WITH UPPER
LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE AND KEPT CHC OF PRECIP THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OVER NCNTRL PORTIONS. OVER THE SW BELIEVE MODELS HAVING
PROBLEMS AND ETA FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF FOCUS WILL LIMIT CHC FOR POPS WITH MODELS OVERESTIMATING
MOISTURE AND LIFT BY END OF FORECAST CYCLE.

TONIGHT SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED WITH ACTIVITY
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CWFA. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION TO 5H COLD POOL TO PROVIDE FOR GREATER
LAPSE RATES FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP. 300-200H DVRG WIND MACRO
INDICATES INCREASED LIFT IN THE NW THIS EVENING THEN FOCUS SHIFTS
INTO SD. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL THEN TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SE TO ERN SD BY MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLEST IN THE SW WHERE LESS CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SRN EXTENT TO MID DECK ASSOCIATED WITH 5H LOW
QUESTIONABLE AND KEPT CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN CWFA WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING.

MONDAY THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO
THE NW. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP IN
THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOLLOWED FMR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCES AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH ADDED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO ADD FOR
ADDITIONAL WARMING.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PROXIMATY TO THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE NCNTRL. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED ACROSS THE W
WITH MAINLY MID DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER. THE
GUIDANCES ALL PUSH FOR HIGHER POPS BUT WITH LACK OF FOCUS DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER NCNTRL.

TUESDAY SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE EAST AS SFC AND 5H RIDGE BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ERODE CLOUDS IN THE SW.
ACROSS NCNTRL SECTION WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVERAGE TO LIMIT HEATING
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING MORE SLOWLY. NGM MOST AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
BY 48 HOURS. ANTICIPATE A MID DECK OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKE SPRINKLES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH OAX WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR NE HALF OF
CWFA.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN PRODUCT OMAZFPLBF.

LBF BB 059/081 056/079 055 22-
VTN EB 057/075 056/072 056 322
ONL EE 060/078 059/075 058 322
ANW EE 059/076 057/073 057 322
BBW BB 060/080 058/078 056 222

TLW