Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 1998

...FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POPS...

UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED WITH 500 RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. AND
TROUGH IN WESTERN U.S. 500 RIDGE STILL IN FIRM CONTROL WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. POPS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE
PERIOD.

PROBLEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POPS. 700 AND 850 THTE RIDGES
REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS CWA THRU 48 HOURS WITH LLJ THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LMVV FROM ETA AND NGM IN 850-700...700-500 AND 500-300 LAYERS HINT AT
MCS TOMORROW NIGHT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NEAR BLACK HILLS WHICH WOULD
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITH LMRH
VALUES IN 40-60 PERCENT. LMVV NOT VERY ORGANIZED TONIGHT THOUGH. Q
VECTORS NOT VERY ORGANIZED EITHER IN THE 850-700...700-500 AND 500-300
LAYERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 18Z SFC CHART SHOWED LOW OVER SE CO WITH
WARM FRONT OVER SW KS INTO OKC THROUGH LIT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
ACROSS CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 DEW
POINTS OF 8-16 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ETA SHOWING PRETTY
POTENT 850 WARMFRONT WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER HSI CWA AT 36 HOURS.
CAPE VALUES TONIGHT IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH CIN IN -40 IN THE WEST
TO -80 IN THE EAST. CAPE TOMORROW NIGHT AT 00Z IN 700-2500 J/KG RANGE
WITH CIN VALUES -40 IN SOUTH TO -100 IN NORTHWEST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...FEEL THERE IS THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
GO HIGHEST POPS IN NE CWA WITH 50 TONIGHT AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE AND
GO HIGH POPS IN NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE MCS IN BLACK HILLS
AND EASTERN NEB. FEEL SOUTH COULD BE CAPPED AND WILL GO LOWEST POPS DUE
TO 700 TEMPS IN 13-16 DEGREE RANGE TOMORROW ACROSS CWA.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN PRODUCT OMAZFPNE.

CCF
LBF BB 065/091 064/091 066 703231  ANW BB 066/088 066/085 067 705352
OGA BB 065/091 064/091 066 703231  ONL BB 06Z7/088 067/084 067 705352
IML BB 066/092 065/092 067 703231  BBW BB 066/090 066/088 067 704242
VTN BB 065/089 064/085 066 704242

MICHELS

NEZ004-030540-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT (1139 PM MDT) FRI JUL 3 1998

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 1239 AM CDT...NORTH PLATTE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAD MOVED EAST AND WAS NO LONGER A THREAT
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

KB

NEZ022-056-030625-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
118 AM CDT (1218 AM MDT) FRI JUL 3 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR PART OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

AT 115 AM CDT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 717 ISSUED EARLIER
FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR GARDEN AND DEUEL
COUNTIES. THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

SPRINGER

NEZ005-030655-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
139 AM CDT (1239 AM MDT) FRI JUL 3 1998

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 0135 AM CDT...NORTH PLATTE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM MERRIMAN TO SOUTHEAST OF BROWNLEE HAD
WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH 2AM CDT WITH
HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

KB

NEZ024-030710-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
150 AM CDT (1250 AM MDT) FRI JUL 3 1998

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HOOKER COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 147 AM CDT...NORTH PLATTE DOPPLER RADAR HAD INDICATED THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED EAST AND
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 230 AM CDT WITH A THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE.

KB

NEZ026-027-030700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
158 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
BLAINE AND LOUP COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 155 AM CDT...NORTH PLATTE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MILE AN HOUR.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BREWSTER OR
19 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLOR. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH 2 AM CDT.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER IN A SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  A BASEMENT OFFERS THE BEST
PROTECTION.

KB

NEZ026-027-030700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
158 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
BLAINE AND LOUP COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 155 AM CDT...NORTH PLATTE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MILE AN HOUR.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BREWSTER OR
19 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLOR. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH 2 AM CDT.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER IN A SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  A BASEMENT OFFERS THE BEST
PROTECTION.

KB