Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
240 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 1998

...FORECAST PROBLEMS TONIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOWED BY
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS CWFA...

COMPLEX SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF WY AND CO BACK INTO
SOUTHERN UT AT 18Z WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOW POSITION
BY 00Z WITH ETA/AVN SOLUTION PREFERED.  IN THE SHORT TERM NGM BRINGS
DECENT SHORT WAVE IN AREA BY 00Z BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ETA/AVN
AND SEE NOTHING ON WV SATL TO INDICATE THAT IT IS THERE.

TONIGHT SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE CWFA.  SURFACE INITIALLY DRY ALTHO MID 50S
DEWPOINTS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHWEST NE
THIS EVENING.  WOULD EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTION NEAR BOUNDARY ALONG
NE/WY BORDER PROGRESSING EAST WITH TIME. AT 19Z BOTH KLNX AND KCYS WITH
WEAK RETURNS...PROBABLY MID LEVEL CLDNS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLS
AS LARGE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.

MODELS BECOME EVEN MORE DIVERGENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT/TROF IN THE 24 TO 36 HR TIME FRAME.  THE NEW ETA THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH LOW EAST OF HSI WHILE NEG PLACES IT NORTH OF VTN. WILL
ACCEPT THE AVN COMPROMISE WHICH WOULD PUT THE FRONT/TROF FROM NEAR VTN
TO NEAR EAR BY 18/00Z WITH SOME CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF CWFA.  BY LATE THUR FRONT WILL BE EAST OF CWFA.

NGM ONLY GRIDDED DATA AVAILABLE.  NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MOS NUMBERS
AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN PRODUCT OMAZFPNE.

CCF
LBF EE 058/077 057/078 054 5343  ANW EE 062/079 060/078 054 4353
OGA EE 083/056 074/054 079 5343  ONL EE 061/080 060/079 055 4353
IML EE 059/076 056/075 055 5343  BBW EE 060/080 059/079 055 4353
VTN EE 059/075 056/071 052 5353

BOWMAN