Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 1998

DATA SLOW IN COMING DOWN THE PIKE FROM WASHINGTON TONIGHT BUT WE DO
HAVE A SATELLITE LOOP FROM GARP GOING. FIRST WEAK LITTLE MCS IS DYING
OUT OVER NW NC WHILE THE SECOND ONE PARADES INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS SECOND MCC APPEAR TO BE COOLING AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE NEXT ONE IS A BIG MONSTER MOVING ACROSS C IN TOWARD WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. ANY SOUTHEAST DRIFT TO THIS SAME-SONG-3RD-VERSE MCS WOULD PUT E
KY UNDER THE GUN.

IN GENERAL...HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR GRADUALLY LOSES STRENGTH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. MODELS DO NOT DEPICT THIS HOWEVER. FRONT REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS KY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE IN C TX
CONTINUES TO SEND VARIOUS IMPULSES ALONG IT. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL
LIKELY SPIN UP AN MCC WHICH WILL ROLL ACROSS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...PROBABLY ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS APART.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND (WARMING CLOUD TOPS
PRIMARILY) WHEN THEY GET PAST THE RIDGE AXIS. THE KEY TO THE FORECAST
IS WHERE WILL THEY DEVELOP AND HOW LONG WILL THEY HOLD TOGETHER. SO
FAR...E KY HAS ONLY SEEN DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY. AS LONG AS RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS TO OUR WEST...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.

TROPICAL PLUME WILL ONLY ADD TO OUR WOES IF MCC OVER OHIO DECIDES TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST. PUTTING HVY RAIN INTO ZFP AND/OR ISSUING FFA IS
PREMATURE AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IF ONE
MCC AFTER ANOTHER MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE MAY PROVIDE THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING GUIDANCE IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE PRODUCT SDFZFPKY.

JKL  74/61/75  654
LOZ  80/63/81  654

INGRAM

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-240000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 AM EST SAT MAY 23 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER THE STATE WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR LARGE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS THESE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS GENERALLY EXPERIENCE A LIFE CYCLE OF 8 TO 12
HOURS AND WILL OFTEN PROPAGATE TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THE AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE AREAS THAT ARE CLOSEST TO THE CLUSTER WHEN IT DEVELOPS. THESE
SYSTEMS ALSO TYPICALLY PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER THAT DEVELOPS OR MOVES THROUGH AN AREA...SEVERE WEATHER IS
MOST LIKELY EARLY IN ITS LIFE CYCLE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
DOMINATING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF ITS EXISTENCE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY VERY WELL EXTEND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS WELL...DEPENDING ON WHERE A NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP AND
WHEN.

THIS IS ONLY A PRELIMINARY OUTLO
OK...STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

INGRAM

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-240000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 AM EST SAT MAY 23 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
SATURDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER THE STATE WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR LARGE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS THESE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS GENERALLY EXPERIENCE A LIFE CYCLE OF 8 TO 12
HOURS AND WILL OFTEN PROPAGATE TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THE AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE AREAS THAT ARE CLOSEST TO THE CLUSTER WHEN IT DEVELOPS. THESE
SYSTEMS ALSO TYPICALLY PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER THAT DEVELOPS OR MOVES THROUGH AN AREA...SEVERE WEATHER IS
MOST LIKELY EARLY IN ITS LIFE CYCLE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
DOMINATING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF ITS EXISTENCE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY VERY WELL EXTEND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS WELL...DEPENDING ON WHERE A NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP AND
WHEN.

THIS IS ONLY A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK...STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

INGRAM