Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 1998

KJKL 88-D SHOWING ISOLATED -SHRA RACING ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF CWA.
THESE SHRA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK VORT LOBE MOVING ACROSS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS IN SE OH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WV AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS STRONGER DYNAMICS IN PLACE IN OH
FOR TS THIS EVENING THERE. AS LONG AS -SHRA REMAIN ISOLATED...WILL OPT
TO HANDLE IN NOWS AND OMIT FROM ZFP PACKAGE.

PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS OH ON SUNDAY
AND THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE...MORE CAPE...AND SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO WORK WITH. OBSERVED LI/S FROM LAPS DATA TODAY
ARE RUNNING -2 TO -4C. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEY ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO
AROUND -6 OR -7C. INSTABILITY ITSELF IS MUCH GREATER ACROSS N IN WHERE
LI/S DROP AS LOW AS -12C. SO WHILE WE PROBABLY WON/T SEE THE STRONGEST
STORMS ON SUNDAY...BELIEVE WE NEED TO KEEP SMALL POP GOING. ANY PRECIP
ON SUNDAY SHOULD REFLECT A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT AND WOULD HARDLY
BE WORTH MENTIONING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

FOG SHOULD BE THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LOOP THROUGH MRF SHOWS NEXT WEEK TO BE HOT AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND BUILDS.  LOOKS LIKE WED WILL BE OUR HOTTEST DAY WITH MAYBE
A WEAK FRONT COMING ACROSS ON FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WOULD CONTINUE TO USE MID 60S FOR LOWS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE
TO FWC NUMBERS. THE GRADUAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH TIME AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE FOLLOWING IS PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN PRODUCT SDFZFPKY.

JKL  65/89/68/91 0320
LOZ  63/90/65/92 0320

INGRAM