Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 PM EST FRI APR 3 1998

PRECIP HAVING A HARD TIME OVERCOMING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THIS
AFTERNOON. INDEED...PRECIP TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS AND LESS WITH
EACH HOUR THAT HAS PASSED. FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
THOUGH IN W TN AS OF 18Z.

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO PAINT EXCELLENT DYNAMICS INTO EASTERN
KY...BUT NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING. BY THAT TIME...MAX HEATING WILL BE
LOST AND IT WILL BE A PURELY DYNAMIC DRIVEN EVENT. IT WILL ALL DEPEND
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS. IF WE NEVER GET INTO
THE WARM SECTOR...SVR WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST. A LITTLE SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SVR BUT CLOUDS REMAIN MAINLY
BKN TO OVC.  AT 18Z WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM JUST EAST OF BWG TO
NORTH OF CSV TO SOUTH OF TYS TO BETWEEN GSP AND ANDERSON SC. SO THE
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH SOME DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND
WESTERN KY...IN PARTICULAR...IS NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

WHAT THIS EVENT DOES HAVE GOING FOR IT...BOTH HERE AND DOWN IN E TN...
IS EXCELLENT SHEAR AS SHOWN ON VWP/S FROM BOTH KJKL AND KMRX. LIGHT SE
WINDS IN THE LOWEST GATES VEER AROUND TO 260/50KTS AT 20KFT. BEST
INSTABILITIES WILL BE OVER TN THIS EVENING ACCORDING TO GRIDDED
DATA...SO BEST CHANCE FOR SVR WILL BE ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER.

COLD FRONT (WHICH IS MORE LIKE A DRY LINE WITH DEWPOINTS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT) SHOULD PASS THROUGH HERE AROUND MIDNIGHT
LOCAL TIME. SHOWERS WON/T LINGER LONG ONCE IT GOES BY...BUT STILL
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING LATE SAT AM. DRY AND
COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUN.

WILL FOLLOW FWC PRETTY CLOSELY IN REGARD TO TEMPS. NO POPS NEEDED
FIRST PERIOD.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS
ARE CONTAINED IN THE PRODUCT SDFZFPKY.

JKL  46/56/37/58  +200
LOZ  44/57/34/60  +200

INGRAM