Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT MON MAY 25 1998

KEYING IN ON TWO THINGS TONIGHT. FIRST IS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING
OVER S MO WHICH COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO EAST KY AS SOON AS LATE
MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER THAT LONG. SECOND FEATURE SHOWS UP OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WV SAT LOOPS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME AND IS
NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS AT ALL.

THE MCC OVER S MO WILL EITHER PROPOGATE EASTWARD INTO MY AREA TODAY OR
REGENERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS E KY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WARRANTS MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS FOR
THE STANDARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING/NOCTURNAL BIAS FOR TSRA HERE.
MIGHT AS WELL MENTION HVY RAIN IN THE ZFP WITH DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70
AND HIGH THETA-E VALUES (330-340K) THAT HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SO FAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.3 INCHES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. H8 JET OF 35 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND LI/S TO -6 AND K INDICES OF
30-34 ALL POINT TOWARD POSSIBLE HYDRO PROBLEMS. WE SHOULD PROBABLY
CONSIDER HOISTING FFA FOR MY CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

POPS STILL IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY AS FRONT BEGINS TO SLIP EVER SO SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.

LOOKS LIKE THIS WET REGIME WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT SLIPS ON BY TO THE EAST AND WE ARE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST.

TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS AROUND TO
INHIBIT HEATING. LESS CLOUDS WILL PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. AROUND 80 WILL
PROBABLY WORK TODAY FOR THE JKL/5I3 GROUP WITH LOWER 80S WITHIN REACH
FOR LOZ/SME GROUP.

THE FOLLOWING GUIDANCE IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE PRODUCT SDFZFPKY.

JKL  80/62/77  576
LOZ  83/65/80  585

INGRAM