Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 1998

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIMILAR INTO TUE. THEY BRING LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUF
ENE TO BUF BY 12Z/MON WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING OUT OVER FAR NW KY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER EAST KY
THROUGH MON AS SHORT WAVE NEAR DBQ PASSES WELL NORTH TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE. SECOND STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER
WEST MT TO SLIDE MORE SE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z/TUE. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT BOUNDARY SLOWLY S INTO SE KY BY 12Z/TUE
AND COULD DEVELOP ANOTHER MCS LATER MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. ETA MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVES NEAR 1 INCH OF RAIN OVER JKL MON
NIGHT VERSUS NGM QUARTER TO HALF INCH. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1-1.50 INCHES TO LEAN TOWARD WETTER ETA SOLUTION.

SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WORKED INTO EAST KY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MON...THEN RETREAT BACK S INTO TN TUE.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXTENDING UP NORTH INTO S OH.
LIKELY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME SEVERE N OF JKL AND
PROB40 S TOWARD THE TN BORDER. THEN PROB30/40 CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT N OF JKL AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AS
DIURNAL EFFECTS DIMINISH.

IMPRESSIVE INSTABLITY WITH CAPES OF 2500-4500 J/KG AND LI OF MINUS 8-
11 WHILE WEAK CAP PRESENT S OF I-64 AND STRONGER S IN TN.

PROB30/40 CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON WITH BEST
CHANCE N OF JKL CLOSER TO STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SKIES PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS AT LEAST
IN THE 60S.

LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE MON NIGHT/TUE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES S THROUGH CWA.

WENT ABOVE WARMER FWC GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT WITH
SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CLOSE TO WARMER FWC HIGHS MON NEAR 85
AND FOLLOWED CLOSE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80.

THANKS SDF FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST COORDINATION.

THE FOLLOWING GUIDANCE IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE PRODUCT SDFZFPKY.

JKL  65/83/63/77  5466
LOZ  67/85/65/80  4456

HUETTL