Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 PM EDT MON JUN 22 1998

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NE KY INITIATING CONVECTION OVER
CLARK/MONTGOMERY COUNTY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY SHOWING UP ON IR IN THE SE
MTNS WITH WEAKER SHOWERS POPPING UP. THE HEAVY DUTY STUFF REMAINS WITH
MCD MOVING INTO CNTL/SRN INDIANA. CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO SRN IL
APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. THE OTHER WX STORY IS THE HOT TEMPS.
CUMBERLAND VLY READINGS ALREADY AROUND 90 DEGREES AT 18Z.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WIDELY SCATTERD TSTMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH LIS OF -5 TO -9. THESE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS GIVEN WINDS UP TO 700 MB AT 20 KNOTS OR
LESS. NEXT PROBLEM IS WITH MCS. ETA SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED S/W WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES EAST ACRS UPPER OH VLY. LOOKING AT DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...APPEARS NRN HALF OF CWA WILL SEE BEST CHANCE
OF ANY TSTMS...50 POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH 30 POPS SOUTH
IN CUMBERLAND VLY. ETA IS SHOWING BEST LIFT COMING IN BETWEEN 06-12Z
TONIGHT. THINK CHC POPS IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR ERN KY AS
STILL SOME UVM AROUND.

AFTER THIS S/W RIDES THROUGH...5H RIDGE BUILDS AND PLENTY OF HOT AND
HUMID WX CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY GIVEN K
INDICES FALLING BELOW 20. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED AS WM FNT FROM NEXT SYS POKES INTO WRN KY WITH SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

AS FOR TEMPS...SEEMS FWC/FAN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH FWC A LITTLE HOTTER
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ. GENERALLY FOLLOWED NGM ON POPS.

THE FOLLOWING GUIDANCE IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE PRODUCT SDFZFPKY.

JKL  71/89/67/91  4302
LOZ  68/92/66/93  3202

WHP