Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EDT THU APR 16 1998

HEAVILY WORKED OVER AIRMASS FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SEVERE TS BUT INSTEAD OUR PROBLEMS BECOMING MORE
OF A HYDROLOGIC NATURE. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS THE SME
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SPENES ISSUED FOR PULASKI
COUNTY GIVES 1.6 INCHES TOTAL AND RADAR ESTIMATES UP TO 2.4 INCHES FOR
3 HOURS HAVE BEEN RECIEVED. SINCE THIS AREA...AS WELL AS AREAS FURTHER
EAST...ARE IN LINE TO SEE PLENTY MORE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
GOES THROUGH...WE RECOMMEND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOZ/SME/JKL GROUPS
FOR TONIGHT.

SURFACE CHARTS HAVE SHOWN DEVELOPING THERMAL AND MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF AS THE
FRONT HEADS EAST. MORE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND HEAD RAPIDLY EAST THIS EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS DROP
MUCH AT ALL THIS EVENING. CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK VERY MUCH IN ORDER
UNTIL THE FRONT GETS THROUGH. THREAT FOR SEVERE SEEMS SMALL...ALTHOUGH
NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER CONSIDERABLY.

MUCH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRY TO PUSH IN ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE GETTING ALL THE WAY TO THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MEAN
WE/LL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

MODELS HINTING AT A RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LEFTOVER
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID NOT HAVE
TIME TO GET A GREAT LOOK AT THIS SO WOULD RECOMMEND FOLLOWING FWC POPS
FOR THOSE PERIODS AT THIS POINT...SINCE BOTH ETA AND NGM SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARD THIS SCENARIO.

THE FOLLOWING GUIDANCE IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED IN THE PRODUCT SDFZFPKY.

JKL  55/63/44/57  +535
LOZ  55/64/45/57  +534

RAB

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-170800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EST THU APR 16 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS STATED THAT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WEST
OF A LINE FROM ABOUT MOUNT STERLING TO MIDDLESBORO. THIS AREA INCLUDES
LONDON AND SOMERSET.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST
OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS INCLUDES HAZARD...MOREHEAD...PIKEVILLE...AND
JACKSON.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MARCHING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
STATE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND UNSTABLE AIR ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING
TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS AND
FLASH FLOODING. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE WORSENING
SITUATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. SHORT TERM FORECASTS...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED TONIGHT IN ORDER TO KEEP YOU INFORMED OF ANY
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS.

BALLARD

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-170800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EST THU APR 16 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS STATED THAT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WEST
OF A LINE FROM ABOUT MOUNT STERLING TO MIDDLESBORO. THIS AREA INCLUDES
LONDON AND SOMERSET.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST
OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS INCLUDES HAZARD...MOREHEAD...PIKEVILLE...AND
JACKSON.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MARCHING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
STATE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND UNSTABLE AIR ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING
TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS AND
FLASH FLOODING. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE WORSENING
SITUATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. SHORT TERM FORECASTS...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED TONIGHT IN ORDER TO KEEP YOU INFORMED OF ANY
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS.

BALLARD