Tornado Warning 22, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
950 AM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

IF ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER THIS AFTRN/EVE WE COULD BE IN FOR A
BIG BOUT WITH SVR WX. CURRENTLY SHORT WAVE OFF ILM/MYR AREA AND MOVING
S. ALL MODELS AT 12Z HAVE IT IN THAT AREA BUT BY 00Z FRI THERE IS SOME
DISCREPENCY IN ITS LOCATION. ETA MODEL THE MOST OMINOUS (MAYBE THE MOST
BENEFICIAL IN REGARDS TO FINALLY GETTING SOME RAIN). ETA HAS IT MOVING
THRU N FL. NGM HAS IT BACK UP IN SE GA WHILE AVN HAS IT EVEN A LITTLE
FURTHER N. MRNG JAX SOUNDING BEFORE MODIFYING IS QUITE UNSTABLE BUT
AFTER MODIFYING WE GET SOME MIGHTY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS.
CAPE INCREASES TO 4500...LI -10...KI 32 AND TT 52. WITH SHORT WAVE
EITHER OVER OR NEARBY...A SFC TROF STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO AT LEAST SW SECTIONS FROM THE GULF IM PREPARING FOR SVR
WX. CAP WILL TAKE UNTIL WE REACH MID 90S TO BREAK BUT THERE IS ALREADY
CONVECTION FIRING UP OFFSHORE CHS/SAV AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. ONLY FACTOR
THAT MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY IS MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS COMING UP FROM THE GULF.
THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON INSOLATION A BIT...ESEPCIALLY S-SW AREAS. WET
BULB ZERO IS 11.2 K FEET SO HAIL IS GOOD BET. PRECIP WATER 1.72 INCHES

AND WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO TSTMS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING LIKE ALWAYS WILL BE AROUND WITH STRONG WIND. E COAST
SEA BREEZE AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ONLY ADD OTHER BOUNDARIES
FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG.

WILL LIKELY BUMP UP POPS AT LEAST 10-20% IN NE FL. ATL MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER THE SAME. MAY TWEAK A FEW TEMPS S-SW TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE
CLOUDS THAT AREA. SMOME AND HAZE IN MANY LOACTIONS THIS MRNG EVEN IN
SE GA WILL MIX OUT A LITTLE THIS AFTRN NOW THAT INVERSION IS LIFTING.
STILL POOR AIR QUALITY IN MANY AREAS.

FOR CWF...WIND AT SAV AND JUST OFFSHORE NOW SHIFTING TO NE IN WAKE OF
SFC TROF. THIS WILL HELP SEA BREEZE ALONG COAST SHIFT A BIT EARLIER IN
MANY AREAS AND FROM SGJ ON N THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO E-NE.
SUGGEST A CHANGE TO WIND FROM SAV-SGJ BECOMING NE-E THIS AFTERNOON.

MOHLIN

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-260000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER UPDATE FOR NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1207 PM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...
...HIGH FIRE THREAT TO CONTINUE TODAY...
...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR CENTURY MARK THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES...

SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES...INTENSE HEAT...AND HIGH INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AREAS OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY ARE FOR
STORMS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE GEORGIA EAST COAST SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA...ALONG AND NEAR THE FLORIDA GEORGIA BORDER...AND
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN SOUTH GEORGIA.  EACH OF THESE IS CAPABLE
OF TRIGGERING THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY HIGH LIGHTNING RATES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN RECENT DAYS SO
THE CHANCE OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS AFTERNOON MIXING
PROGRESSES...THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRE PROPAGATION AND
REFLASH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THE
RESULT OF SEABREEZES. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 110 DEGREES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH TO
OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY MORNING.

SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID ACTIVATION.

FOR ADDITION INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.UNF.EDU/NWS/JAX/

WELSH

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-260000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER UPDATE FOR NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1207 PM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...
...HIGH FIRE THREAT TO CONTINUE TODAY...
...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR CENTURY MARK THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES...

SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES...INTENSE HEAT...AND HIGH INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AREAS OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY ARE FOR
STORMS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE GEORGIA EAST COAST SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA...ALONG AND NEAR THE FLORIDA GEORGIA BORDER...AND
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN SOUTH GEORGIA.  EACH OF THESE IS CAPABLE
OF TRIGGERING THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY HIGH LIGHTNING RATES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN RECENT DAYS SO
THE CHANCE OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS AFTERNOON MIXING
PROGRESSES...THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRE PROPAGATION AND
REFLASH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREAS. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THE
RESULT OF SEABREEZES. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 110 DEGREES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH TO
OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY MORNING.

SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID ACTIVATION.

FOR ADDITION INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.UNF.EDU/NWS/JAX/

WELSH