Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU JUL 2 1998

MAJOR PROBLEMS IN FLAGLER COUNTY BECAUSE OF THE FIRES. THESE PROBLEMS
MAY BE FURTHER COMPLICATED IN E COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LATEST
REPORTS FROM COASTAL AREAS INDICATE THAT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORM. EVEN IF IT DOES FORM ITS
ITS INLAND PENETRATION WOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND IF
EVEN THAT FAR. W COAST SEA BREEZE NOW W OF GNV-OCF OR W OF I-75. LOOKS
LIKE SFC TROF LIES N OF SGJ-GNV. STATIONARY FRONT STILL ACROSS CNTRL
GA. SOME CONVECTION CURRENTLY UNDERWAY EXTREME N PART OF CWA WITH
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA. WILL
EXPECT TO SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE THAT AREA THRU THIS EVENING. NEXT AREA
OF FOCUS WILL BE JAX-GNV-SGJ AREAS WHERE W COAST SEA BREEZE MERGES
WITH OLD SFC TROF. PULSE SEVERE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WIND...HAIL
AND OF COURSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF E COAST SEA BREEZE DOES
FORM IT WOULD BE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG.
NGM SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IN SE GA THRU
THE EVENING WILL MAKE IT INTO EXTREME NE FL NR JAX-FERNANDINA BEACH
EARLY TONITE. FOR THAT REASON WILL GO WITH CHC POPS JAX TONITE.
SUGGEST ADDING AREAS OF SMOKE TO ST. JOHNS/FLAGLER. GUIDANCE TEMPS
LOOK A LITTLE LOW TONITE AS WIND WILL HOLD AROUND 5 MPH INLAND AND
5-10 MPH OVER COASTAL COUNTIES.

RIDGE ALOFT TO S OF AREA WILL RETROGADE NW BUT HEIGHTS CONT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THRU PERIOD. SFC RIDGE SLIDES A LITTLE W AND THIS ALLOWS
FOR A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT FRI/SAT. THIS MEANS THAT E COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP BOTH DAYS EARLY AFTRN BUT WITH W-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IT
WILL NOT MOVE FAR INLAND. WILL STAY BELOW CLIMO ON POPS FOR FRI AND GO
WITH HIGHEST POPS EXTREME N CLOSER TO FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTREME E PART
OF FL WHERE E COAST SEA BREEZE/W COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MERGE. ETA HAS
VORT LOBE SWINGING THRU AREA WHICH WOULD HELP CONVECTION. ALSO WITH
W-NW FLOW MAYBE SOMETHING WILL HELP THE FIRES ALONG THE E COAST AS
ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD ATLC COAST. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR SE GA WILL BE MARGINAL ON FRI WITH DEWPTS DROPPING INTO
UPPER 60S. WILL SEE TEMP RANGE COAST-INLAND BOTH DAYS WITH SEA BREEZE.

INTERESTING THAT NGM TAKES SHORT WAVE IN GULF N AND PHASES IT WITH
SHORT WAVE DROPPING THRU MID-MS VALLEY BY 48 HRS. AS THIS OCCURS THE
MEAN RH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INCREASES TO > 70%. BUT ETA/AVN
TAKE SHORT WAVE INTO TX AND HAVE MEAN RH MUCH LOWER.
.
MAY NEED SCEC FOR SAV-SGJ TONITE...OTHERWISE NO HILITES NEEDED IN CWF.

SSI BB 077/095 076/090 077 15332
JAX BB 076/097 073/094 072 15332
GNV BB 074/097 073/096 072 15121

MOHLIN