Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EST MON FEB 16 1998

DISORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SFC LOWS BCM MR ORGANIZED VCNTY SRN LA TNGT
THEN RPDLY LIFTS NWE TO THE TN VALLEY TUE MRNG. WARM FNT HAS MOVED TO
THE N OF THE AREA WITH FA NOW UNDER WARM SECTOR. ASSOCD COLD FNT TO
MOVE OVR FA LTR TNGT WITH PSBL PREFNTL SQUALL TRACKING  EWD OVR AREA
IN ADVANCE OF ACTUAL FNTL PASSAGE.  LTST SATL LOOP INDICATING TOPS
COOLING ATTM IN NRN GLFMEX JUST S OF MS/LA.
U/L DIFFLUENCE CONTS ITS HOLD OVR FA AND AREA COMES UNDER FAVORABLE
QUAD OF U/L JTSTRM WNDS FOR EHNANCED UVV WITH MAJORITY OF FA UNDER MDT
RISK.
U/L PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES LATE TUE AS CUTOFF LO NOW OVR THE SRN PLAINS
LIFTS NE AND FLO OVR SRN TIER STATES BCMG ZONAL.

PRELIM
SSI WB 058/065 053/073 03851
JAX WB 060/071 052/072 03850
GNV WB 060/075 051/073 03850
.
MOBBS

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-170500-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
710 PM EST MON FEB 16 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE...ATKINSON...ECHOLS...CLINCH...
JEFF DAVIS...CHARLTON...BACON...WARE...APPLING...PIERCE...WAYNE...
AND BRANTLEY COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNTIL 1 AM EST...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...
COLUMBIA...DUVAL...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...
SUWANNEE...AND UNION COUNTIES IN NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL
1 AM EST...
...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL RIVERS...
...FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MARION...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES...
...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...GALE WARNING AND HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HAVE PRODUCED
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS 6 INCHES IN HASTINGS. REPORTS FROM MARION AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
INDICATES NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. REPORTS
FROM SOUTHWEST ST JOHNS COUNTY INCLUDE FLOODING IN HASTINGS.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE MOVING NORTHEAST. THESE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WILL LIKLEY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY
FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RESIDENTS AND INTERESTS
ALONG FLOOD PRONE RIVERS SHOULD PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DETAILS ON
THE RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD ARE CONTAINED IN RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS.

ON THE COASTAL WATERS... A GALE WARNING AND HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM SAVANNAH TO ST AUGUSTINE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE.

SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING.

PETERSON/MOBBS

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-170500-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
710 PM EST MON FEB 16 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE...ATKINSON...ECHOLS...CLINCH...
JEFF DAVIS...CHARLTON...BACON...WARE...APPLING...PIERCE...WAYNE...
AND BRANTLEY COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNTIL 1 AM EST...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...
COLUMBIA...DUVAL...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...
SUWANNEE...AND UNION COUNTIES IN NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL
1 AM EST...
...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL RIVERS...
...FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MARION...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES...
...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...GALE WARNING AND HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HAVE PRODUCED
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS 6 INCHES IN HASTINGS. REPORTS FROM MARION AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
INDICATES NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. REPORTS
FROM SOUTHWEST ST JOHNS COUNTY INCLUDE FLOODING IN HASTINGS.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE MOVING NORTHEAST. THESE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WILL LIKLEY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY
FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RESIDENTS AND INTERESTS
ALONG FLOOD PRONE RIVERS SHOULD PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DETAILS ON
THE RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD ARE CONTAINED IN RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS.

ON THE COASTAL WATERS... A GALE WARNING AND HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM SAVANNAH TO ST AUGUSTINE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE.

SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING.

PETERSON/MOBBS