Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 1998

AT 18Z SFC BNDRY WAS LOCATED FROM LOW PRSS CNTR IN NERN KS ACRS NRN HALF
OF MO INTO SRN IL.  DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO MID 70S POOLING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF FRONT IN MO AND SRN IL.  SAT TRENDS INDICATE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
NORTH AND THIS CONSISTANT WITH ETA MDL FCST OF BRING FRONT NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF SPI AT 00Z.  CONVECTION SLOW TO DVLP BUT IS DVLPING JUST SOUTH
OF FRONT AND ADVECTING TOWARD BMDRY.  AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONT CONTS TO
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND CAP CONTS TO WEAKEN.  CONVERGENCE IS
INCREASING NEAR SFC LOW AND IN WRN KY...SLOWER TO INCREASE IN NRN MO.
ETA MDL HAS VERIFIED BEST AND HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTANT OVER PAST 2 DAYS.
CAPES HIGH IN AREA AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SVR STORMS.  SPC ALREADY
MONITORING MOST OF MO AND PARTS OF IL FOR BOX...BLV MORE BOXES POSSIBLE
ALONG BNDRY AS WELL LATER THIS EVE.  THEREFORE...CONT THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS CWA.  AFTER FIRST ROUND OF STORMS TONIGHT...COULD
BE ANOTHER MCS DVLP AND MOVE INTO CWA LATE TONGHT.

TOMORROW LOW IN WCNTRL IL DURING MORNING HRS.  MOVEMENT OF LOW DURING
DAY WILL DICTATE POSSIBILITY OF MORE STORMS IN AREA TOMORROW.  THEREFORE
CONT LIKELY FOR STORMS DURING DAY ON SUNDAY.  AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH AFTER
LOW PASSAGE...PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH.  MEMORIAL DAY COULD STILL BE
WET AS FRONT STAYS SOUTH BUT MAIN LOW STILL IN WRN PLAINS.  NO REASON TO
CHANGE MONDAY NOW.

TEMPS HAVE REMAINED LOW DUE TO CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS.  GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TOO WARM PAST FEW DAYS AND THIS TREND WILL CONT WITH CONT CLD COVER
NORTH OF FRONT.

FIRST PERIOD INPUT WILL BE SENT SHORTLY

PIA  58/68  66
SPI  59/68  88
DEC  58/68  88
CMI  58/68  88
LWV  62/72  88

AUTEN

ILZ029-031-036>038-040>044-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073-
240500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1014 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 1998

...TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AS OF 1010 PM CDT...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...SO THE TORNADO WATCH FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT WAS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFJECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...COLES...CUMBERLAND...CLARK...EFFINGHAM...CLAY...JASPER
...CRAWFORD...RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE.

BE ALERT TO THE CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS.

BYRD

ILZ029-031-036>038-040>044-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073-
240500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1014 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 1998

...TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AS OF 1010 PM CDT...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...SO THE TORNADO WATCH FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT WAS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFJECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...COLES...CUMBERLAND...CLARK...EFFINGHAM...CLAY...JASPER
...CRAWFORD...RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE.

BE ALERT TO THE CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS.

BYRD

ILZ056-062-063-066>068-071>073-240600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1110 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 1998

...TORNADO WATCH 404 FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 1108 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORMS HAD MOVED EAST INTO
INDIANA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. THEREFORE TORNADO
WATCH 404 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

BYRD

ILZ056-062-063-066>068-071>073-240600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1110 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 1998

...TORNADO WATCH 404 FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 1108 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORMS HAD MOVED EAST INTO
INDIANA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. THEREFORE TORNADO
WATCH 404 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

BYRD