Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
840 PM CST MON NOV 9 1998

FCST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IS STRONG/DAMAGING GRADIENT
WINDS EXPECTED WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW
IS PROGD TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PRESS FALLS
OF GRTR THAN 1 MB PER HOUR AS IT TRACKS TO WRN LK SUPERIOR BY
TUE AFTN. THIS VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY INCRSG
WINDS ACRS CENT IL LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

TWO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO. FIRST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS XPCTD TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG RAPIDLY WITH 850MB WINDS PROGD TO BE GRTR
THAN 70 KNOTS. I FEEL THAT A MODERATE SHOWER...AND ESPECIALLY A
THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRANSFERING PLENTY OF MOMENTUM
TO THE SURFACE TO RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE EARLY MORN
HOURS.

SECOND AND BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE GRADIENT WINDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM I BELIEVE THAT
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (SUSTAINED WIND 40 MPH OR GRTR...OR GUSTS 58
MPH OR HIGHER) AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON
TUESDAY IN CENT IL FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FWC WIND
FORECASTS SUPPORT THIS NOTIION...INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38-48
MPH ACRS ALL OF CENT/ERN IL LATE MORN-ERLY AFTN TUESDAY. CURRENT
PROFILER DATA IN THE LOWEST GATES JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A 992MB SFC LOW
IN THE SRN PLAINS ALREADY SHOW 40 KT WINDS...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING
XPCTD AS THE LOW DEEPENS.

AS A RESULT...WOULD LIKE TO GET THE WORD OUT ASAP INSTEAD OF WAITING
FOR 4AM ZONES. BELIEVE A WIND EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF ADVANCE NOTICE. THUS...WILL BE UPGRADING WIND ADVISORY TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

COORD WITH CHI...STL AND DVN.

MILLER