Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 PM CST THU OCT 29 1998

SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH FRI. CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SE ND AT 18Z WILL DEVELOP
A PVA CENTER NEAR THE IA/IL BORDER BY 00Z/FRI TRACKING E TO NE IL/NW IN
BY 06Z/FRI. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NE SD WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/W KY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER
CENTRAL IA/W MO WITH COLD FRONT ABOUT 100SM FURTHER W OVER WEST IA/EAST
KS. MODELS SLOWLY WEAKEN LOW PRESSURE NE TO N OF MN BY 12Z/FRI WITH DRY
LINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRACKING E ACROSS CENTRAL IL BETWEEN 23Z-03Z
WITH COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ABOUT 4 HOURS LATER.

CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG FROM IL W WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
MINUS 3-6C. WOULD GO WITH A LIKELY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM
DEC/BMI WEST AND WOULD MENTION A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE EARLY THIS
EVENING. GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
FRONT...BUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED
MORE OVER N IL...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS COULD
LINGER EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER FAR EAST/NE IL UNTIL COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
STATE BETWEEN 07-08Z.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH S WINDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY THIS
EVENING BECOMING W AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO CONTINUE...GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MILDER
FWC LOWS...FWC 3 DEGREES ABOVE FAN LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AVG 55-60 BUT TO
RANGE FROM MID 50S NW TOWARD PIA TO AROUND 60 SE NEAR CMI/LWV.

SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FRI MORNING AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS BACK N
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES NOSES SE TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST WINDS
10-15 MPH TURN NW WITH H85 TEMPS OF 12-13C TODAY COOLING ABOUT 2C FRI.
FAVOR COOLER FAN HIGHS...FAN 4-5 DEGREES COOLEVR THAN FWC. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S N OF ILX AND 65-70 FROM ILX S.

PIA  55/64  60
SPI  55/66  60
DEC  57/67  50
CMI  58/66  61
LWV  60/69  51

HUETTL/MILLER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>044-047>054-061-301200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 AM CST THU OCT 29 1998

SYNOPSIS:  A WARM FRONT CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL ADVANCE
TOWARD NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SHARP COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS BY
EARLY EVENING. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP
SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 70S.
THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER ALLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY DAMAGING
WINDS IN AREAS WEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO DECATUR LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM CST.

HUETTL/MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
428 PM CST THU OCT 29 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    2 E VIRGINIA              IL    WIND DAMAGE
10/29/98   CASS                            TWO UTILITY POLES WERE
                                           SNAPPED IN HALF (SHERIFF)

0200 PM    2 E VIRGINIA              IL    1.75 INCH HAIL
10/29/98   CASS                            (SHERIFF)

0225 PM    PHILADELPHIA              IL    WIND DAMAGE
10/29/98   CASS                            13 UTILITY POLES BLOWN
                                           DOWN (ISP)

0244 PM    2 W PETERSBURG            IL    60 MPH TSTM GUST
10/29/98   MENARD                          (ESDA)

0255 PM    5 N ATHENS                IL    .75 INCH HAIL
10/29/98   MENARD                          (ESDA)

BYRD