Flash Flood Warning 110, NWS Wilmington, OH

FORECAST COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
220 AM EDT MON JUL 20 1998

FORECAST CHALLENGE...CONVECTION POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY.

AT THE MOMENT...KILN SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS FROM RICHMOND TO CVG TO
HTS.  THE WESTERN PART OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE TRAINING WHILE THE
EASTERN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING SOUTH.  THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST OH
WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF CVG.  IT
APPEARS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND
LIKELY STILL BE IN FAR SOUTHERN CWA AROUND THE BEGINNING OF DAY
PERIOD.  KIND AND IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER STORM SOUTH OF
LAF.  SO EARLY MORNING PERIOD MAY BE NEEDED.

ALL THREE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SAGGING COLD
FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE SOME KIND OF POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS IN/KY AND FAR
SOUTHERN OH ZONES.  REST OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

NEXT THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS COLD FRONT FROM ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO
OHIO VALLEY.  ETA HAS PROGGED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG
PROGGED OVER NW OH AND NRN IN AT 00Z.  WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR WEST CENTRAL OH ON TUESDAY.

FWC AND FAN GUIDANCE LOOK IN THE BALL PARK.

DAY 092/071 094/073 090 112
CMH 093/072 095/072 090 112
CVG 092/072 095/073 090 311
PMH 092/072 095/075 092 311
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