Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EST MON FEB 16 1998

RDU: STEADY THEN RISING TEMPS TONIGHT. CONTINUE CATAGORICAL POPS AND
MENTION OF HEAVY RNFL WITH THUNDER S TO N AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE
ACTION SHIFTS TO THE NE ZONES AND OUTER BANKS BY MIDDAY TUE WITH
OTHER AREAS IN ERN NC SEEING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RNFL IN THE
AFTN AS DRY SLOT PROGGED TO WRAP INTO THE FA. MILD TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S MOST AREAS TUE WITH READINGS NEAR 60 N COAST ZONES.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS A GOOD BET TUE AFTN AND EVENING...AND THEN
VRBL CLDS WED WITH ONLY A SMALL POP. DISC WITH ILM ABOUT FFA AND CAN
GO EITHER WAY WITH IT...RDU PLEASE COORDINATE IF NECESSARY.

CWF: WILL CONTINUE WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH S OF HATTERAS AND ADD
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE CFW IN TANDEM WITH PAMLICO SOUND. HEAVY SURF
ADVISORY S OF HATTERAS. MAIN FCST STILL ON TRACK WITH AN E TO S FLOW
FROM THIS EVENING TO MIDDAY TUE WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS CONVECTION APPROACHES. SW FLOW
WILL BECOME W WED...BUT SPEEDS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE AOA 25 KT.

COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD BE MINOR BUT BEACH EROSION A GREAT CONCERN
WITH PREVIOUS LOSS OF DUNES...MORE OF A THREAT COULD BE FROM THE
SOUNDSIDE WITH NCSU PC MODEL SHOWING 2-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ALONG N END OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ON THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
ESPECIALLY. EVENT DURATION PER INITIAL STRENGTH OF INVERSION IS THE
BIG QUESTION WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT SOUNDS ALREADY REMAIN FULL OF
WATER.

DISC: SVR THREAT LOOKS RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TUE MORNING WITH HIGHEST
HELICITY VALUES JUST OUTRUNNING THE BIG DRY PUNCH. H8 WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT INCREASING PER ETA OUTPUT AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THRU
ERN NC...NOT A GOOD SIGN. UPPER LVL DIFLUENCE IS ALSO VRY
IMPRESSIVE. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING BULK OF UVM AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE E AND N OF ERN NC TUE NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING W WNDS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN SFC LOW WED. JUST MAY SEE
ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE SRN HALF OF MHX
CWA ON WED.

.MHX...GALE WARNING VA/NC BORDER TO N OF SURF CITY.
       COASTAL FLOOD WATCH S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO N OF SURF CITY.
       HEAVY SURF ADVISORY S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO N OF SURF CITY.

RVT