Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
910 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998

RDU: NO CHANGES.

CWF: WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

DISC: BONNIE STILL PLAYING BY HER OWN RULES WITH CENTER JUST NNE OF
ILM AND TAKING A SLOW NNE JAUNT UP THE COAST ACCORDING MHX 88-D.
ALTHOUGH LAND STATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN REPORTING PARTICULARY STRONG
WINDS FOR A CAT 3 STORM...RECON STILL GETTING 90+ KT READINGS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL WITH STEADY CENTRAL PRES.  IN ADDITION OBS FROM FPSN
HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITH S WINDS AT 70 KTS AT 00Z.  SAT/RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE AN ACTIVE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHICH HAS BEEN
EXPANDING AND CONTRACTING THE PAST 6 HRS.  COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED AS STORM INGESTED DRY AIR AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PIX. APPEARS
UPPER TROF HAS PASSED BONNIE AND SHE WILL LIKELY WOBBLE AROUND THE
COAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO.  SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORM WHICH WAS
CONFIRMED BY 18Z GFDL WOULD SUPPORT THREAT FOR A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT
ACROSS ESTRN NC INTO THU EVENING.  PRECIPITAL H2O ON 00Z MHX SOUNDING
WAS AN UNBELIEVABLE 2.6 INCHES SO SOME HEFTY TOTALS WELL IN EXCESS
OF 10" POSSIBLE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
NCA HAS HAD 7 INfCHES ALREADY TODAY!  EXCELLENT STAEMENT FROM RDU
HIGLIGHTING THIS THREAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

.MHX...HURRICANE WARNING COAST AND SOUNDS.
       FF WATCH
       INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING COASTAL PLAINS.

ELARDO