Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 1998

RDU: 40 POPS FOR TONIGHT.  MAYBE A 20/30 POP SE COAST FOR SAT AM.
LOWS TONIGHT LOW 70S.  HIGHS SAT 80-85.  LOWS SAT NIGHT NR 70. HIGHS
SUN LOW 80S.

CWF: AVN SOLN OF A DEEPENING ALMOST TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST
SAT/SUN WAS DISCARDED AFTER COORD WITH MPC/ILM.  INSTEAD A BLEND OF
THE NGM/ETA WAS USED WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.  THUS A
MINIMAL SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AND SOUNDS FOR NE
FLOW REGEIME.  MODEL WIND SPEED FCSTS SEEMED ON THE LOW SIDE
CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF HIGH AND WARM WATER TEMPS OFF THE SE COAST.
WILL BRING SPEEDS BELOW SCA LEVELS S COAST AND SOUNDS SAT NIGHT/SUN
BUT SEAS WILL BE NR 6 FT.  MUST WATCH FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
STALLED OUT BNDRY FOR POSSIBLY STRONGER WINDS.

DISC: ALL 3 MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLNS FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE AVN APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH
PERSISTENT LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST.  THE ETA/NGM DIFFER WITH
RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF DRYING ASSCTD WITH ANTICYLONE RIDGING IN FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT AND SUN.  THOUGHT THE NGM WAS TOO WET
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVR PA/NY WHICH ARE INSTAB CU/SC.  SO A
SLOWED DOWN VERSION OF THE ETA SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHOICE AT THIS
TIME WITH GRADUAL CLEARING BEGINING LATE TONIGHT NRN SECTIONS AND
CONTINUING ON SAT FOR SRN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.  THUS SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE CLEARING ENSUES.  FLY IN OINTMENT IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT
AND THROW SOME MOISTURE BACK AT THE COAST ON SUNDAY.

WITH RESPECTS TO THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA FEEL
THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH MOST OF THE
"ACTION" POST FRONTAL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR SVRL HRS
AFTER FROPA.  WARM MID LVL TEMPS AND ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE
INHIBITING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  COULD SEE SOME INCREASE TOWARDS
EVENING AS ETA/NGM INCREASE LIFT WITH FRONT AS IT CROSSES SRN HALF
OF MY CWA.

.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.

ELARDO