Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 AM CDT MON JUN 8 1998

...SHORT TERM...
KICT 88D SHOWING LINGERING -TSRA ACRS FAR ERN PTN OF CWA
ATTM...ALONG 85H WARM FRONT. THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH NE AND EXIT CWA BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE. FOCUS NOW TURNS TO
ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING IN WRN KS IN LF QUAD OF IMPRESSIVE UPPER
JET SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SAT PIX.

LIKED AVN SOLUTION FOR SHORT TERM FCST AS NGM TOO FAR NORTH WITH SFC
FEATURES AND TOO SLOW WITH MOVEMENT OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ALSO...06Z
FCST BEST VERIFIED LL MOISTURE RETURN. SHORTWAVE ACRS NW CO AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR SAT PIX EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
WITH LL MOISTURE AXIS/THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTING INTO CTNRL/SE KS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT COOLING AT MID LEVELS...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. SO TSRA POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACRS CWA
TODAY...BUT FEEL BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSRA WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF THE
AREA WHERE BOUNDARY EXISTS AND BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS. ALSO
ACRS WRN PTN OF CWA WHERE MODELS FCST DRYLINE TO BE. AS A RESULT WILL
BUMP UP POPS IN CENTRL/SC KS FROM PREVIOUS FCST...BUT STILL WILL
KEEP BELOW LARGE GUIDANCE VALUES.

OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING WIND ADVISORY AS
PROFILERS INDICATING 50 KT LL JET IN PLACE...BUT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER EARLY IN THE DAY...NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE.
THUS WILL LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE MORE CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPS...
WITH GOOD WAA AND DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL GO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABV FCST GUIDANCE VALUES.

HYSELL

...LONG TERM...
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM FCST WILL BE TIMING OF TSTM CHCS AND
TEMPS. I PREFERED THE ETA MODEL THIS MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE IT
SEEMED TO INITIALIZE WELL...HAS THE MOST CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS...AND OFFERS A REASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON CURRENT PCPN TRENDS
AND POSITION OF UPPER FEATURES PER PROFILERS/6.7 IR CHANNEL. IN THE
EXTENDED...THE AVN SEEMED TO CARRY ON THE TREND OF THE ETA WITH
SFC/UPPER AIR FEATURES. ECMWF ALSO SEEMED TO CARVE OUT A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.

LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER THE FCST AREA...WEAK UPPER SUPPORT... AND AND A
PERSISENT LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN. APPEARS THAT GULF INFLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
OVER KS. POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVR WRN US WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
120 HRS. MAIN CHANCES OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR WHEN MINOR SHORTWAVES
EJECT NE FROM THIS TROF AND INTERACT WITH SFC BOUNDARY OVER FCST
AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO WILL MID
LEVEL TEMPS...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY BEING CONFINED TO EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

WEAK DIFF PVA AXIS ACRS CWA BY THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE. IN ADDITION...03Z MESOETA SHOWS DRYLINE
BECOMING HUNGUP OVER SC KS...WITH SFC MOIST CONV ALONG THIS
FEATURE. RESULT SHOULD BE TSTMS CONTINUING THIS EVENING. AGREE WITH
SPC THAT SOME SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE BL WINDS CAN
BECOME LOCALLY BACKED.

TAIL OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT WITH BUILDING HGTS AND
SUBSIDENCE AS A RULE TUESDAY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...WITH TEMPS OF
85 TO 90. NO BIG CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM...AS ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE
TO HINT AT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW INTERACTING WITH UNSTABLE AIR
IN PLACE...AND MAJOR CAPPING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

DAVIS

FCSTID = 2
ICT   87  68  88  69 /  40  30   5   0
HUT   87  67  89  68 /  40  30   5   0
EWK   87  67  87  68 /  40  30   5   0
EQA   85  68  87  69 /  40  30   5   0
WLD   87  68  88  70 /  40  30   5   0
RSL   86  63  87  64 /  40  20  10   0
GBD   86  64  89  65 /  40  20  10   0
SLN   86  64  86  65 /  40  30  10   0
MPR   86  65  87  67 /  40  30  10   0
CFV   82  68  89  70 /  40  40  10   0
CNU   81  67  87  69 /  40  40  10   0
K88   81  67  86  69 /  40  40  10   0

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1057 AM CDT MON JUN 8 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
BUTLER      ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL  SUMNER
CHASE       HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:

ALLEN       GREENWOOD   NEOSHO      WILSON      CHAUTAUQUA
LABETTE     ELK         MONTGOMERY  WOODSON

SYNOPSIS:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE
THUNDERSTO0RMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

MRU

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1057 AM CDT MON JUN 8 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
BUTLER      ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL  SUMNER
CHASE       HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:

ALLEN       GREENWOOD   NEOSHO      WILSON      CHAUTAUQUA
LABETTE     ELK         MONTGOMERY  WOODSON

SYNOPSIS:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE
THUNDERSTO0RMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

MRU