Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 AM CDT WED MAY 20 1998

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING SFC MAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
...MAINLY ACROSS NRN KS AND INTO MO WITH LOW CENTERED OVER ERN CO
NEAR THE KS BORDER.  LIKED THE AVN PLACEMENT WITH THE SFC FEATURES.
THE ETAS SRN PLACEMENT ON THE FRONT LOOK TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NRN
NGM PLACEMENT COULD HAPPEN BUT LIKED THE AVNS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
BETTER.  FOR THE MOST PART WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE TODAY...EXCEPT
TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA TO THE FCST.  ALL THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WERE INDICATING A
VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM AND INTO SW KS BY LATE AFTN. 300MB JET
ALSO MOVING OVR OK...PLACING SRN KS IN THE FRONT LEFT QUAD ABOUT THE
SAME TIME.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALOFT TO HELP ERODE
AWAY THE CAP AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH BEST
CHC OF TSRA DOES APPEAR TO BE LATER TONIGHT...DONT KNOW IF I CAN
COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT BY LATE AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.  PLUS RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT SOME -RA WAS TRING TO DEVELOP ATTM OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS WHICH HAVE
BEEN MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT.

NOONAN

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD.  I WILL UTILIZE THE AVN SOLUTION
TONIGHT.  THE ETA SEEMED TO BRING THE LOW AND BOUNDARY TOO FAR
SOUTH TONIGHT FOR MY LIKING.

SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH THE EVER PRESENT BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR HYS TO
SLN AND EASTWARD.  IF THIS PANS OUT AS THE MODEL SUGGESTS...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL ENSUE...ONLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW AND THE BOUNDARY CLOSELY.

THE BEST HIGH THETA E AIR IS GOING TO BE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING AND A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AT H8 PUSHES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  INITIAL THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE THICKNESS GRADIENTS.  THIS WOULD PUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS IN THE PRIME AREAS FOR THUNDER.  DECENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR PROFILES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE...SO HIGH WINDS AND ROTATION SEEM
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.  A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE LINGERING SATURDAY
MORNING...SO CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE NICE...WITH THE TEMPERATURES
MODERATED DUE TO THE CONVECTION.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HANDLED THIS
QUITE WELL.

.EXTENDED...LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED.  THE BOUNDARY
KEEPS LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND THE HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S EACH DAY.

CHANCE

FCSTID = 1
ICT   89  64  84  60 /  30  50  20  20
HUT   89  63  84  61 /  30  50  20  20
EWK   89  63  84  61 /  30  50  20  20
EQA   88  64  84  61 /  20  50  20  20
WLD   90  65  86  63 /  30  50  20  20
RSL   87  61  82  58 /  30  50  20  20
GBD   89  62  83  59 /  30  50  20  20
SLN   88  63  82  59 /  30  50  20  20
MPR   89  63  83  60 /  30  50  20  20
CFV   89  66  86  64 /  20  50  20  20
CNU   89  65  84  62 /  20  50  20  20
K88   88  63  84  62 /  20  50  20  20

.ICT...NONE.