Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT THU MAY 14 1998

...SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE ON PROBABILITY OF SVR WX
TONIGHT. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY GOOD INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
AROUND 3500 J/KG BUT BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER CAP CAN BE
BROKEN. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING NICE 5H
SPEED MAX (50-70 KTS) IN SW KS...BUT ETA PUSHES DRYLINE A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST BY 12Z FRI. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION AS IT
VERIFIED LL MOISTURE AND TEMPS THE BEST.

CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE AND APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP ACROSS WRN KS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST STORMS
WILL FORM INTO ORGANIZED LINE AND SHIFT EAST INTO CNTRL ZONES LATE.
THUS WILL CONT SCT POPS ACRS ENTIRE CWA AND KEEP MENTION OF SVR.
WITH DWPTS IN MID/UPPER 60S...WILL BUMP UP LOWS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST WHICH WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
VALUES.

HYSELL

...LONG TERM...
I WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE ETA/AVN SOLUTION PER PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND THE POOR HANDLING BY THE NGM MODEL.  THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE LINGERING RW/TRW FRIDAY MORNING.

BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT
F24 AND THEN SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY.  WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...I WILL KEEP A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH
THE DAY.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE RW/TRW ENDING BY
MIDDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY F48.  THE
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS DRY THROUGHOUT AND THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS BACK TO
THE SOUTH...SO A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO START TO ADVECT IN SOME
GULF AIR...SO A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL POP ON SUNDAY.  ANOTHER LEE
SIDE TROF WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
MONDAY.  I AM LOSING CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THE CHANCES FOR
PREIPITATION...HOWEVER...I WILL NOT TAKE THE CHANCE OUT SINCE IT IS
SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CHANCE

FCSTID = 1
ICT   66  79  56  84 /  40  40   5   5
HUT   63  77  54  84 /  40  30   5   5
EWK   66  78  56  84 /  40  40   5   5
EQA   66  79  56  84 /  40  40   5   5
WLD   67  79  56  85 /  40  40   5   5
RSL   61  76  53  84 /  50  30   5   5
GBD   61  77  53  85 /  50  30   5   5
SLN   66  78  54  84 /  40  30   5   5
MPR   64  77  54  84 /  40  30   5   5
CFV   67  81  56  84 /  30  50   5   5
CNU   66  80  56  82 /  30  50   5   5
K88   66  79  56  82 /  30  50   5   5

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-151800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK....UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1025 PM CDT THU MAY 14 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
BUTLER      ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL  SUMNER
CHASE       HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:

ALLEN       GREENWOOD   NEOSHO      WILSON      CHAUTAUQUA
LABETTE     ELK         MONTGOMERY  WOODSON

SYNOPSIS:

...SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 AM IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA REMAINS
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND WILL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.

WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REACH HARPER...KINGMAN...RENO...AND SUMNER COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT UP
TO 50 MPH INTO THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE WINDS UP TO 90 MPH. IN ADDITION...HAIL TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE DEVELOPING STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED
WINDS UP TO 80 MPH OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SPOTTERS...AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT SHOULD
ALL BE PREPARED FOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR LOACL MEDIA FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DAVIS

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-151800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK....CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1032 PM CDT THU MAY 14 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
BUTLER      ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL  SUMNER
CHASE       HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:

ALLEN       GREENWOOD   NEOSHO      WILSON      CHAUTAUQUA
LABETTE     ELK         MONTGOMERY  WOODSON

SYNOPSIS:

...SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 AM IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA REMAINS
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND WILL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.

WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REACH HARPER...KINGMAN...RENO...AND SUMNER COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT UP
TO 50 MPH INTO THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE WINDS UP TO 90 MPH. IN ADDITION...HAIL TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE DEVELOPING STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED
WINDS UP TO 80 MPH OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

IN ADDITION...THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING
AS THEY FORM INTO A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LINE...AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE
SAME PATH...AND PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOME AREAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SPOTTERS...AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT SHOULD
ALL BE PREPARED FOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DAVIS

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-150515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 PM CDT THU MAY 14 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

KED

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