Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 PM CDT MON MAY 11 1998

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

18Z SURFACE CHART HAD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ON THE CO/KS
BORDER.  A WEAK TROF ESTENDED NORTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND A DRY
LINE EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN TX.

THE ETA MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER GRASP ON THE CURRENT
POSITION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER...THE NGM MODEL DID NOT DIFFER BY
MUCH.  THEREFORE...I WILL FOLLOW THE ETA SOLUTION WITH NOT MUCH
VARIANCE FROM THE FWC NUMBERS.

THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NE AND DEVELOP OF
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY F18.  EVEN THOUGH A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA...I ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER STORMS
TO FIRE ACROSS NE IN PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.  THE CAP MAY
BE A BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  I AM
A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE LOW MAY MOVE MORE EASTERLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO
WITH ALL THE KEY INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.  THEIR DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
TOO MUCH SPEED SHEAR BUT THE ROTATIONAL SHEAR IS PRESENT...SO IF
STORMS FIRE...SOME ROTATION IS POSSIBLE.  THE FORECASTED LAPSE RATES
AT RSL ARE EXTREMELY STEEP WITH CAPES NEAR 3000 POSSIBLE.  SO WE
WILL DEFINATELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPING SITUATION.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER MILD AS THE DEWPOINTS
STAY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.  THE LOSS OF MIXING WITH SUNSET SHOULD
HELP IN SUBSIDING THE WINDS A BIT.

CHANCE

...LONG TERM...
IMMEDIATE CONCERN ON TUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE FRONT.  MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SYSTEMS. NGM SEEMS
TO BE THE MIDDLE MAN. ETA REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT NEARLY THROUGH SE
KS BEFORE RETREATING LATE TUE. AVN NEVER SEEMS TO GET THE FRONT
THROUGH NE KS.  NGM NUDGES IT TO ALMOST INTO SE KS EARLY TUE A.M.
AND QUICKLY RETREATS IT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY.  ETA CAPE
INDICATING AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE E...BUT WITH FRONT
BACK ACROSS NRN KS DURING THE AFTN AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
LVL SUPPORT WILL LEAVE FCST DRY FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...THINGS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING UP NICELY AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE SWRN STATES.

EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT NEXT SYSTEM WILL KICK
OUT ACROSS THE CWA ON THU INTO FRI AM.  STILL A QUESTION ON WHICH
MODEL TO BELIEVE...THE MORE SRN MRF WITH A VIGOROUS VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH OK OR A MORE NRN TRACK WITH THE ECMWF...EITHER WAY STILL
WOULD INDICATE THAT CHC OF TSRA FOR THE CWA THU INTO FRI MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY.

NOONAN

FCSTID = 15
ICT   60  82  59  86 /  20  10   5   0
HUT   58  81  58  86 /  20  10   5   0
EWK   59  82  58  86 /  20  10   5   0
EQA   61  82  59  86 /  20  10   5   0
WLD   61  83  60  87 /  20  10   5   0
RSL   57  80  56  84 /  20   5   5   0
GBD   56  80  56  84 /  20   5   5   0
SLN   58  81  57  86 /  20  10   5   0
MPR   58  81  58  86 /  20  10   5   0
CFV   62  84  60  87 /  20  10   5   0
CNU   61  83  59  86 /  20  10   5   0
K88   61  83  58  86 /  20  10   5   0

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047-048-112130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT MON MAY 11 1998

THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON      RUSSELL     LINCOLN     ELLSWORTH

THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THEREFORE...THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR BARTON...RUSSELL...LINCOLN...AND ELLSWORTH COUNTIES
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

CHANCE