Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH REMAINS INTACT THROUGH F48 ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA BY F24.  THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE PER THE LATEST
SATTELITE PICTURES.

THE WEAK TROF OVER NORTHERN KS WILL WASH OUT OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF CNK.  WITH DECENT SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS KS...I EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF KS AND SOUTHERN NE.  THICKNESS PATTERNS WOULD YIELD AN
EAST OR JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST MOVEMENT.  HOWEVER...PER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...I WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SC AND
SE SECTIONS DUE TO THE DIABATIC HEATING AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. CAPES ARE
PRESENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5000 JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH LI/S TO
MINUS 8.  THESE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE WITH MORE HEATING.

THE NGM PROG FOR FRONTAL POSTITION BY F36 HAS THE FRONT JUST THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS POSITION SHOULD NOT HINDER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SC AND SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS.  THEREFORE...I MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS.  THE MODEL DOES NOT SEEM TO POOL ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WITH STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING PRESENT...I WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ALL AREAS BY F42 DECENT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT UPSLOPE...WHICH COMBINED WITH A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WILL INDUCE A THICK CLOUD DECK AND SOME
STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION.  COLD AIR...COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL THEN SINK SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE
FOR THE CWA.  I AM A BIT HESITANT TOO DROP TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH SIMILAR
READINGS.

EXTENDED...
I WILL TRIM THE TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT DUE TO THE COLD AIR WHICH IS
FILTERING INTO THE CWA.  RETURN FLOW SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

CHANCE

FCSTID = 1
ICT   68  87  56  66 /  20  30  50  30
HUT   64  83  52  64 /  30  50  30  30
EWK   64  83  52  64 /  30  50  30  30
EQA   68  87  56  66 /  20  30  50  30
WLD   69  88  57  67 /  20  30  50  30
RSL   63  80  50  61 /  30  50  30  30
GBD   64  80  50  61 /  30  50  30  30
SLN   64  82  51  63 /  30  50  30  30
MPR   64  83  52  64 /  30  50  30  30
CFV   67  88  56  67 /  20  30P  40  30
CNU   66  87  55  66 /  20  30  40  30
K88   66  87  55  66 /  20  30  40  30

.ICT...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0704 PM    4 N ALBERT                KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   BARTON                         REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

0710 PM    6 W HOISINGTON            KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   BARTON                         REPORTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE

0731 PM    HOISINGTON                KS   TORNADO
09/29/98   BARTON                         TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTH OF
                                          HOISINGTON.  REPORTED BY AGTAP
                                          OBSERVER.

0731 PM    6 NW GREAT BEND           KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   BARTON                         REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER

0733 PM    2 S HOISINGTON            KS   TORNADO
09/29/98   BARTON                         TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY
                                          AGTAP OBSERVER

0753 PM    GREAT BEND                KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   BARTON                         REPORTED BY BARTON COUNTY 911.

0758 PM    4 NE GREAT BEND           KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   BARTON                         REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER.

0804 PM    MADISON                   KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   GREENWOOD                      REPORTED BY GREENWOOD COUNTY 911.

0811 PM    ELLINWOOD                 KS   1.25 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   BARTON                         REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

0919 PM    BUFFALO                   KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   WILSON                         1 INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
                                          REPORETED BY AGTAP OBSERVER.

0922 PM    10 W CHANUTE              KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   WILSON                         REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0930 PM    3 SE GREAT BEND           KS   WIND DAMAGE
09/29/98   BARTON                         BARN BLOWN OVER.   REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0950 PM    CHANUTE                   KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   NEOSHO                         REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0950 PM    8 SE CHANUTE              KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
09/29/98   NEOSHO                         REPORTED BY AGTAP OBSERVER.

1010 PM    THAYER                    KS   WIND DAMAGE
09/29/98   NEOSHO                         10 INCH TREES BLOWN DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT.

MRU