Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...........CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH REMAINS INTACT THROUGH F48 ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA BY F24.  THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE PER THE LATEST
SATTELITE PICTURES.

THE WEAK TROF OVER NORTHERN KS WILL WASH OUT OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF CNK.  WITH DECENT SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS KS...I EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF KS AND SOUTHERN NE.  THICKNESS PATTERNS WOULD YIELD AN
EAST OR JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST MOVEMENT.  HOWEVER...PER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...I WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SC AND
SE SECTIONS DUE TO THE DIABATIC HEATING AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. CAPES ARE
PRESENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5000 JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH LI/S TO
MINUS 8.  THESE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE WITH MORE HEATING.

THE NGM PROG FOR FRONTAL POSTITION BY F36 HAS THE FRONT JUST THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS POSITION SHOULD NOT HINDER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SC AND SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS.  THEREFORE...I MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS.  THE MODEL DOES NOT SEEM TO POOL ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WITH STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING PRESENT...I WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ALL AREAS BY F42 DECENT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT UPSLOPE...WHICH COMBINED WITH A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WILL INDUCE A THICK CLOUD DECK AND SOME
STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION.  COLD AIR...COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL THEN SINK SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE
FOR THE CWA.  I AM A BIT HESITANT TOO DROP TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH SIMILAR
READINGS.

NUMBERS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY

CHANCE

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-300500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON	   COWLEY	HARVEY	    MARION 	RENO
ELLSWORTH  KINGMAN	MCPHERSON   RUSSELL	SUMNER	 CHASE
HARPER	   LINCOLN 	RICE	    SALINE	BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN	   ELK	        LABETTE	    NEOSHO	WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA GREENWOOD	MONTGOMERY  WILSON

SYNOPSIS:
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MILES AN HOUR.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE HUTCHINSON...NEWTON...
CASSODAY...YATES CENTER AND IOLA AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SPOTTER
ACT6IVATION LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

HYSELL

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-300500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON	   COWLEY	HARVEY	    MARION 	RENO
ELLSWORTH  KINGMAN	MCPHERSON   RUSSELL	SUMNER	 CHASE
HARPER	   LINCOLN 	RICE	    SALINE	BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN	   ELK	        LABETTE	    NEOSHO	WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA GREENWOOD	MONTGOMERY  WILSON

SYNOPSIS:
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MILES AN HOUR.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE HUTCHINSON...NEWTON...
CASSODAY...YATES CENTER AND IOLA AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SPOTTER
ACT6IVATION LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

HYSELL