Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 1998

FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM...
NGM INITIALIZED WELL WITH 18Z SFC MAP...HOWEVER THE ETA SEEMED TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WINDS AT 18Z.  ALOFT...MODELS WERE IN
MORE AGREEMENT ON LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATER
TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY GETTING
CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LVL LOW IN SE CANADA.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FRONT MOVING EASTWARD...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
SECTION GETS STALLED OUT ACROSS KS POSSIBLY OK DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ETA SOLUTION...THE NGM KEEPS
WINDS TOO SHARP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THE
ETA IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE ON WINDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT TO SEE SCT
PRECIP OVERNIGHT...DONT THINK WELL SEE THE LIKELY COVERAGE SO WILL
PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE CHC CAT.  TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ETA SOLUTION. EXPECT CLDS TO BREAK UP ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTN MON ALLOWING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S...
WHILE MORE PERSISTENT CLD COVER KEEPS CENTRAL KS IN THE 70S. WITH
FRONT IN THE VCNTY MONDAY WILL KEEP A SMALL POPS GOING. ETA TRIES TO
KICK SOME ENERGY OUT FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH TIMING WHEN
AND WHERE THESE S/W WILL TRACK A PROBLEM. TUESDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH SFC HIGH FINALLY PUSHING INTO SRN MN AND PUSHING FRONT
FARTHER S ALLOWING THE COOLER AIR TO FINALY FILTER IN.  BUT THE HIGH
QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO KS DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THU/FRI.

NOONAN

FCSTID = 15
ICT   70  86  66  80 /  40  30  40  30
HUT   68  85  64  79 /  40  30  40  30
EWK   69  85  65  79 /  40  30  40  30
EQA   70  86  66  80 /  40  30  40  30
WLD   70  86  66  81 /  40  30  40  30
RSL   64  79  58  75 /  40  30  40  30
GBD   65  81  60  76 /  40  30  40  30
SLN   66  79  58  75 /  40  30  40  30
MPR   66  82  62  76 /  40  30  40  30
CFV   72  86  65  80 /  50  30  30  30
CNU   71  85  64  78 /  50  30  30  30
K88   70  85  63  77 /  50  30  30  30

.ICT...NONE.