Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT WED AUG 26 1998

...SHORT TERM...
CONCERN TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PCPN CHANCES. 18Z SFC
ANALYSIS/LAPS DATA INDICATED SFC FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SW KS-NE OK
AND VSBL SAT PIX INDICATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ACRS NRN OK. WHERE
THESE BOUNDARIES INTERSECT...LAPS DATA INDICATES CAPES BETWEEN 3000-
3600 J/KG AND WEAKENING CAP. EXPECT TSRA TO FORM ALONG THS
INTERSECTION AND ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH S/SE MID LVL FLOW
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SLOWLY TRACK N/NE. PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK
SHEAR...THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF PULSE STORMS ACRS SC/SE ZONES THIS
EVENING...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN...SO WILL CARRY SCT POPS
FOR SC/SE ZONES TO COVER THIS SCENARIO.

NGM PUSHES THIS FRONT FARTHEST NORTH AND ALREADY WAS TOO FAR NORTH
WITH 6 HR PROG...THUS LEANED TWD SLOWER ETA MOVEMENT. COMBINATION
OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACRS S NE/N KS...WAA IN NC/NE KS INTO NRN
NEBRASKA AND 850-700 MB THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE SUGGESTS HEAVY RAIN
EVENT MAINLY NORTH OF CWA...BUT WITH THICKENESS DIFFLUENCE INTO SE
KS...FEAR SOME CONVECTION COULD BUILD INTO SE ZONES OVERNIGHT. WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO BEST
DYNAMICS/SFC BOUNDARY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS GOING IN SC/SE ZONES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE WHICH IS CLOSER TO WARMER FWC
NUMBERS.

HYSELL

...LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THE CONCERN. MODELS BASICALLY AGREE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES INTO WRN KS ON THU...THEN THRU MOST OF THE
STATE THU NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THUR AS RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES MAY LINGER AND MAIN FRONT APPROACHES CE KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS LIKELY TO CLIMB AGAIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THOUGH LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SOME...WILL
GO WITH MAXES NEAR FWC. THU NIGHT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
AS FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND LLJ BACKS SLIGHTLY. WILL GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON POPS. FCST GETS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR FRI AND
BEYOND REGARDING FRONTAL POSITION AS WRN END BECOMES DIFFUSE. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR SC/SE SECTIONS FRI...THEN DROP FOR SAT AS
FOCING SHIFTS S AND W OF THE CWA. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
FRI...BUT STILL 90-95. CANT SEE MUCH TO KEY ON FOR THE EXTENDED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
LOW TEMPS MAY AT LEAST DROP BELOW 70. MAXES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
90...PERHAPS A DEG OR 2 COOLER MON AS WRN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND NRLY
FLOW CONTINUES.

PETERSEN

FCSTID = 3
ICT   74  96  70  93 /  30  20  40  20
HUT   72  96  70  92 /  30  20  40  20
EWK   74  96  70  92 /  30  20  40  20
EQA   74  96  70  92 /  30  20  40  20
WLD   74  97  71  93 /  30  20  40  20
RSL   70  94  68  91 /  40  20  40  10
GBD   70  94  69  91 /  40  20  40  10
SLN   74  94  69  91 /  40  20  40  10
MPR   74  93  69  91 /  40  20  40  10
CFV   74  96  71  92 /  30  20  40  20
CNU   74  95  71  92 /  30  20  40  20
K88   73  95  70  92 /  30  20  40  20

.ICT...NONE.