Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

..SHORT TERM..
ACTIVE EVE IN STORE WITH THREAT OF SVR WX OVR THE ENTIRE CWA.  HIER
MSTR HAS BEEN RACING NWD WITH OK MESONET INDC MID 50 DEWPTS JUST
ACRS THE OK BORDER.  MSTR CONVERGENCE HAS MAXIMIZED NE OF SFC
LO...IN N CNTRL KS.  PROXIMITY OF SFC THERMAL BNDRY SUG THIS WL BE
NR IN THE INITIATION PT.  SUSPECT ONCE THESE GO...ACTIVITY WL DVLP
SWRD ALG DRYLN IN TO S CNTRL KS.  SUSPECT INITIALLY DRYLN TO BE NR
WRN FCST AREA BDR.  PROGD WND PROFILES INDC GOOD LLVL SHEAR E OF A
LN FM NR LINCOLN-EWK-ICT.  LEGITIMATE TORNADO THREAT EXISTS OVER
AREA NORTH AND EAST OF WICHITA.  VIRTUALLY ALL PARAMETERS WITH LCL
STUDY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  EXCEPTION IS THE DEWPTS...SPCLY AT
850.  GIVEN EARLY SEASON AND STRENGTH OF UPR JET...SHUD BE ENUF TO
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL MSTR.  CONCERNED HOW FAR E DRYLN WL GO OVNGT
AS UPR TROF REMAINS W OF AREA DESPITE WLY FLOW.  18Z SFC MAP INCDS
PRES FALLS BACK INTO NM.  WL KEEPS MINS A LTL ABV GUID IN
ANTICIPATION OF HIER DEWPTS ACRS THE REGION OVNGT.

...LONG TERM...
PREFERRED THE AVN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ETA APPEARED TO RACE
SFC FEATURES EAST TOO FAST...WITH THE NGM A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. APPEARS
THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL ONLY END VERY NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
SECOND PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS DRIER SFC AIR MOVES IN
AND BEST LIFT EXITS NE. SHOULD SEE MIDDAY CLEARING SC/SE KS IN WAKE
OF LOW...BUT SECONDARY TROF/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO C KS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY...MOST OF CWA SHOULD SEE WRAPAROUND
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT THINKING OF SHOWERS...BUT
ADJUST TIMING. GOING TEMPS DON'T LOOK TOO BAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...ALL MODELS SHOW A BROAD MID LEVEL TROF REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS FA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A W/NW FLOW PATTERN.
VORTICITY APPEARS CHANNELLED AND LOW LEVELS DOMINATED BY CAA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...SO APPEARS THAT ANY DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED. NOGAPS/MRF SEEM TO BE MOST IN LINE...
WITH ECMWF APPARENTLY HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS.
BASED ON 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 3-5C RANGE...WILL CUT HIGHS
BACK OVER GOING FORECAST...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS DECENT BUST
POTENTIAL WITH FMR MOS EQUATIONS VS. APRIL SUN...SO WON'T GO THAT
COOL. NW FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
WAA LEADING TO WARMER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS BUILD A
DECENT OMEGA BLOCK OVER WEST COAST NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN. NRN STEAM APPEARS TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED OVER CANADA.

DAVIS

FCSTID = 2
ICT   51  66  41  53 /  30  20  10  20
HUT   48  65  39  53 /  30  20  10  20
EWK   51  66  41  53 /  30  20  10  20
EQA   52  67  41  53 /  40  20  10  20
WLD   53  68  42  53 /  40  20   5  10
RSL   42  62  36  51 /  20  30  20  20
GBD   44  63  37  51 /  20  30  20  20
SLN   47  63  38  51 /  30  30  20  20
MPR   48  65  39  51 /  30  30  10  20
CFV   56  71  42  53 /  60  50   5  10
CNU   56  71  42  53 /  60  50  10  10
K88   56  70  42  53 /  70  50  10  20

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-142210-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
454 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

HOWERTON