Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 1998

SHORT TERM:
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG AND JUST N OF THE KS/OK BORDER.
TSRA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NW KS.
EXPECT STORMS TO TRACK EAST...AND SHOULD SEE FRONT LIGHT UP AS WE
MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LATER TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE
TSRA CURRENTLY IN NE NM MOVE UP ACROSS SW KS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VCNTY AND LLJ KICKS UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY.  HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WAS PRETTY MUCH LIMITED TO ONE OR TWO COUNTIES AND SINCE
BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT ISSUE A FFW
ATTM.  TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE AROUND 70 NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH
DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR.
NOONAN

LONG TERM:
NGM COMING MORE IN LN W/ ETA RGDG MORE SRLY PSNG OF W-E QSTNRY FNT
ACRS OK. AS SUCH GTR CONCENTRATION SHRA/TS TO OCR ACRS SC & SE SXNS
& HV DBLD POPS BOTH SXNS TO 60%. MSTR-LADEN AMS TO INHIBIT TEMP INCR.
AS SUCH HV LWRD MAXS BOTH SXNS TO NR 90 & 85-90 RESPECTIVELY W/ CLDS
HIT HARDER I.E. MOCLDY. C SXN MAXS LEFT AS IS W/ POPS INCRD SLGTLY TO
40%. TMW NGT'S POP PAT TO REFLECT FNTL PSNG I.E. KPG HIGHEST POPS
ACRS SC & SE SXNS (40%). LTL DIFF IN MOS ON TNGT'S MINS & WON'T DEV
FM THEM I.E. ARND 70 ALL SXNS. FOR SUN WL EXTD MENTION POPS INTO ERY
MRNG BOTH SC & SE SXNS & EMPLOY "DCRG CLDNS" WORDING BOTH SXNS W/ C
SXN KEPT PTCLDY/MOSUNNY & DRY THIS PD.

EXTENDED:
WL LMT MENTION TS TO MON AS SFC HI OVR GRT BASIN PUSHES E INTO WRN
HI PLNS. NO SGFNT DIFF IN TEMPS PLANNED ATTM.
ES

FCSTID = 4
ICT   73  88  71  87 /  80  60  40  40
HUT   72  88  70  88 /  80  60  40  40
EWK   72  88  71  87 /  80  60  40  40
EQA   73  88  71  87 /  80  60  40  40
WLD   74  88  71  87 /  80  60  40  40
RSL   69  90  70  89 /  80  40  40  30
GBD   70  90  70  89 /  80  40  40  30
SLN   71  89  70  88 /  80  40  40  30
MPR   72  88  71  88 /  80  40  40  30
CFV   74  85  71  86 /  60  60  40  40
CNU   73  86  70  86 /  60  60  40  40
K88   72  86  70  86 /  60  60  40  40

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
155 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 1998

A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN...

CENTRAL KANSAS...
         BARTON              CHASE               ELLSWORTH
         LINCOLN             MARION              MCPHERSON
         RICE                RUSSELL             SALINE

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         BUTLER              COWLEY              HARPER
         HARVEY              KINGMAN             RENO
         SEDGWICK            SUMNER

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         ALLEN               CHAUTAUQUA          ELK
         GREENWOOD           LABETTE             MONTGOMERY
         NEOSHO              WILSON              WOODSON

SYNOPSIS:
AT EARLY AFTERNOON...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF COLORADO AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  AS FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 54. THESE TOO MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME WEAK TORNADOES.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THE WEST. THIS AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS JUST BEFORE DAWN.  ALTHOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE MINOR FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS DUE TO HEAVY
RAINS.

SPOTTER ACDTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BURGER/NOONAN

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
155 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 1998

A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN...

CENTRAL KANSAS...
         BARTON              CHASE               ELLSWORTH
         LINCOLN             MARION              MCPHERSON
         RICE                RUSSELL             SALINE

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         BUTLER              COWLEY              HARPER
         HARVEY              KINGMAN             RENO
         SEDGWICK            SUMNER

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         ALLEN               CHAUTAUQUA          ELK
         GREENWOOD           LABETTE             MONTGOMERY
         NEOSHO              WILSON              WOODSON

SYNOPSIS:
AT EARLY AFTERNOON...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF COLORADO AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  AS FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 54. THESE TOO MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME WEAK TORNADOES.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THE WEST. THIS AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS JUST BEFORE DAWN.  ALTHOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE MINOR FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS DUE TO HEAVY
RAINS.

SPOTTER ACDTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BURGER/NOONAN