Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

...SHORT TERM...
MAIN FCST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FROPA TIMING AND MENTION
OF TSRA.  PRECIP EARLIER TODAY ACRS CWA HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY ECHOES
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.  FRONT FCST TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY OUT OF CWA BY 24 HRS.  MODELS SHOWING DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT AND CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER ERN COLO.  WL HAVE MENTION
OF TSRA FOR ALL OF CWA OVERNIGHT BUT THINK BRUNT OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY ACRS NRN PORTION. TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COOL OVERNIGHT AS BEST COOL
AIR WELL TO THE NORTH. WL GENERALLY GO ABV GUID NUMBERS BY A FEW
DEGREES.  WL ALSO LET HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS MAJORITY OF
AREA WILL DROP BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.  WL ISSUE NPW FOR HEAT AND
HANDLE REMAINING 4 HOURS WITH STF.

...LONG TERM...
MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

I WILL FOLLOW THE ETA/AVN SOLUTION DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AND ALIGN ITSELF
ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER BY MORNING AND THEN FLUTTER AROUND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH F48.  THIS SCENARIO WILL FILTER IN SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT HAS PREVAILED THE PAST WEEK.  THE
READINGS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY WILL GIVE THE CWA...PRIMARILY THE
SOUTHERN HALF...A CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FLUX IS PRESENT.  INITIAL THINKING IS THAT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DEVELOP
INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT.

...EXTENDED...
I WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
REBOUND A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST WEEK.

CHANCE

FCSTID = 1
ICT   75  94  71  92 /  30  10  20  30
HUT   74  92  70  92 /  30  10  20  30
EWK   75  93  70  92 /  30  10  20  30
EQA   75  93  70  92 /  30  10  20  30
WLD   76  94  71  93 /  30  10  20  30
RSL   70  91  67  90 /  30  10  20  30
GBD   72  91  67  90 /  30  10  20  30
SLN   75  91  68  90 /  30  10  20  30
MPR   74  91  68  90 /  30  10  20  30
CFV   76  90  70  90 /  30  10  20  30
CNU   76  90  69  89 /  30  10  20  30
K88   75  90  69  89 /  30  10  20  30

.ICT...HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES KSZ032>033...
KSZ047>053...KSZ067>072...KSZ082>083...KSZ091>096...KSZ098>100.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-300245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
848 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

CENTRAL KANSAS...
BARTON              CHASE               ELLSWORTH
LINCOLN             MARION              MCPHERSON
RICE                RUSSELL             SALINE...

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
BUTLER              COWLEY              HARPER
HARVEY              KINGMAN             RENO
SEDGWICK            SUMNER...

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
ALLEN               CHAUTAUQUA          ELK
GREENWOOD           LABETTE             MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO              WILSON              WOODSON.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER HEAT INDICES HAVE DROPPED BELOW HEAT INDEX
CRITERIA.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN HIGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
COMBINE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 105 DEGREES
OR GREATER.