Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 1998

SHORT TERM:
MCS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK THE PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT. SFC FRONT
STRETCHES FROM SE KS INTO NW OKLA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS POOLING ACROSS
NRN OKLA. ETA PROGGED SFC THROUGH 85H WINDS BACK AND INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WHILE S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET PULL OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS KS. EXPECT MCS TO ORGANIZE OVER WRN KS AND ROLL
ACROSS THE STATE BY MORNING...SIMILAR TO ETA FCST. HIGHEST POPS CE
ZONES...SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE SOUTH AS CAP MAY REMAIN STG ENOUGH TO
SUPRESS SRN EXTENT OF ACTIVITY.  COULD SEE SOME TSRA DEVELOP DURING
THE EVENING IN SE KS AS WELL...WITH NOSE OF UNSTABLE AIR IN OKLA
PUSHING NE AHEAD OF WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM:
LINGERING EFFECTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS THE QUESTION. EXPECT FRONT TO
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH SIMILAR TO ETA SOLUTION...LIFTING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. SLOW INCREASE IN CAP STRENGTH
NOTED AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SRN PLAINS. WILL KEEP POPS
IN ALL SECTS FOR LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY. NEXT MCS TUE NIGHT
SHOULD FORM FARTHER NORTH...BUT MAY SLIDE MORE SEWRD AS UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS CE/SE ZONES...DRY SC WITH BUILDING
CAP. TSRA CHCS END TUES AS RIDGE BUILDS AND CAP STRENGTHENS. HOT AND
DRY EXTENDED STILL LOOKS OK.

PETERSEN

FCSTID = 3
ICT   69  92  71  96 /  40  40  10  10
HUT   69  92  71  97 /  40  40  10  10
EWK   69  92  71  96 /  40  40  10  10
EQA   69  92  71  96 /  40  40  10  10
WLD   69  92  71  96 /  40  40  10  10
RSL   66  90  70  97 /  60  40  30  10
GBD   66  90  70  97 /  60  40  30  10
SLN   66  90  70  96 /  60  40  30  10
MPR   66  90  70  96 /  60  40  30  10
CFV   69  92  71  95 /  40  40  30  10
CNU   69  92  71  95 /  40  40  30  10
K88   69  92  71  95 /  40  40  30  10

.ICT...NONE.