Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 1998

SHORT TERM:
TSTMS FIRED ALG STNRY FNT XTNDG FM NW MO=>SE KS=>ACRS NRN OK=>NRN TX
PNHDL @ 05Z. FNT TO RMN STNRY THRUT 1ST PD & W/ PRSTNT CNVG ALG FNTL
BNDRY & ABNDT MSTR TO PLAY W/ TSTMS TO PRST INTO MRNG ACRS SC & SE
SXNS. PER FNTL PSNG W/ EMPLOY AN UNORTHODOX ZN CONFIGN BRKG OFF OK
BDR COUNTIES ACRS BOTH SC & SE AND 2ND TIER SE KS COUNTIES (EK..WL &
NO) INTO ONE ZN. AS SUCH HIGHEST POPS TO BE FOUND HERE (ABT 40-60%).
IN ALL PROBABILITY WL PUT SE SXN @ HIGHER END OF POP SPECTRUM WHERE
MSTR GTR. W/ SLO MVMT TSTMS TO PRODUCE +SHRA W/ COPIOUS RAINFALLS A
GOOD BET @ SOME LOCALES. WL EMPLOY SUCH WORDING IN C & SC ZNS. FFGS
RUNNING HIGH SO WL NOT ISSUE FFA @ THIS JUNCTURE. FNTS PRESENCE TO
MAKE TEMP FCSTG INTERESTING. YDA THE MERCURY SOARED TO NR 110F AT
ABT 5 LOCATIONS ACRS SC KS (MY SIDEKICK ON THE MESO SIDE ATTRIBUTES
THIS TO A HEAT BURST THAT JUST HAPPENED TO LAST ALL AFTERNOON. I
AGREE). GUID MAXS ARE FRLY CLOSE & WONT DEV FROM THEM.

LONG TERM:
STNRY FNT RMNG DRAPED ALG/NR KS/OK BDR TO ALLOW FOR INCRD LWR-LVL
MSTR POOLING THAT WL RCH FRTHR N INTO C SXN. W/ STNRY FNT XTNDG NW
INTO HI PLNS CNVG TO INCR W OF CWA LTR THIS AFTN & H7-H5 SHRTWV VEN-
TURING INTO THE NEIGHBORHOOD INDUCING INCRD UVM TSTMS TO DVLP ACRS C
SXN AS WELL. HENCE 40% POP WARRANTED THIS SXN TNGT W/ 40-60& CONTD
ACRS SC & SE SXNS. LTL DIFF IN GUID MINS & GENLY FLWD. NGM TRIES TO
LIFT FNT SLOLY N AS WRMFNT TAKING BNDRY TO KS/NEBRASKA BDR BY TMW
EVE W/ ETA FAR MORE HESITENT..STRADLLING FNTL BDNRY NR KS/OK BDR.
GIVEN NRLY ZONAL FLO H7 & ABV AM BIASING TWD ETAS MORE SRLY PSNG OF
FNTL BNDRY TMW. HENCE AM PICTURING INCRD OVR-RUNNING PCPN & TSTMS
CWA-WIDE TMW....SPCLY C SXN. PER COORD W/ TOP THIS MATCHES WELL W/
THEIR GAMEPLAN. PER ABV RSNS AM BIASING TWD MORE CONSERVATIVE FAN
SOLN FOR TMWS MAXS ACRS THE BOARD.
ES

FCSTID = 4
ICT   90  70  94  71 /  40  40  40  10
HUT   90  69  93  71 /  40  40  40  10
EWK   90  70  93  71 /  40  40  40  10
EQA   90  70  93  70 /  40  40  40  10
WLD   91  73  94  70 /  40  60  40  30
RSL   89  67  88  71 /  30  40  40  40
GBD   89  67  89  71 /  30  40  40  40
SLN   89  67  89  71 /  30  40  40  40
MPR   89  67  89  71 /  30  40  40  40
CFV   91  73  94  70 /  40  60  40  30
CNU   91  72  93  70 /  40  60  40  30
K88   90  70  92  70 /  40  40  40  10

.ICT...NONE.